With the 98th annual Oscars fast approaching, here are our picks for who will — and should — walk away with awards on Sunday night.

Best Picture

What do conspiracy-obsessed beekeepers, Frankenstein’s Creature, and vampire hunters have in common? 

All of them feature in this year’s Best Picture nominees at the Academy Awards, which will take place on March 15, 2026. This year’s nominated films cover a wide range of themes, from the noir “The Secret Agent” to the introspective “Train Dreams” and energetic “Marty Supreme.” But although there are 10 films vying for the top prize, only two have a real chance at taking the gold trophy home. 

“Sinners,” writer-director Ryan Coogler’s smash hit genre-bending drama, is the first contender. The film, based on an original story, has many strengths, with massive box office success and a compelling use of music, especially in the now-famous “I Lied to You” scene. 

The film recently won Best Ensemble and Best Actor (for Michael B. Jordan) at the Actor Awards, and has continued to pick up wins for Coogler’s screenplay and nominations for his direction. The film shattered the record for the most Oscar nominations of all time, including everything from visual effects to song nominations. What could stop it?

Its biggest rival is Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another.” The thrilling adventure film tells the story of the revolutionary group the French 75, but the heart of the story lies in the father-daughter pairing of Bob (Leonardo DiCaprio) and his daughter, Willa (Chase Infiniti), as they try to escape the oppressive U.S. military. The film has dominated this awards season, picking up Best Film, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay prizes at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, and BAFTA awards. Further, its anti-oppression, resistance-focused message and high critical praise should give it a boost for voters. 

“One Battle After Another” will be an extremely deserving winner. The highly entertaining movie flies by and weaves together familial duty, independence, and politics, while still being highly entertaining through thrilling rooftop footraces and a heart-pounding car chase. 

Will win: Adam Somner, Sara Murphy, and Paul Thomas Anderson, producers, “One Battle After Another.”

Should win: Adam Somner, Sara Murphy, and Paul Thomas Anderson, producers, “One Battle After Another.”

Best Director

Just like in the race for Best Picture, Best Director is between “Sinners” director Ryan Coogler and “One Battle After Another” director Paul Thomas Anderson. Both wrote their films’ scripts, brought about high box office grosses, and managed large ensembles of actors, but only one of them can win. 

Even though Coogler’s “I Lied to You” scene is an absolute showstopper, beautifully combining a one-shot with singing and dancing across eras, Anderson is more likely to win the Oscar. 

Anderson has been nominated for 14 Academy Awards for films like “There Will Be Blood” and “Phantom Thread” but has never won, contributing to a long-overdue win. He has also picked up almost every Best Director trophy this season since his National Board of Review victory back in early December, and Coogler has yet to take a major prize from Anderson. 

Anderson’s victory will be incredibly deserved, as directing an over 2 ½-hour long film with as many twists, suspenseful scenes, and laugh-out-loud moments as “One Battle After Another” is Oscar-worthy.

Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another.”

Should win: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another.”

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley’s heartbreaking, soundless scream halfway through “Hamnet” will be more than enough to assure her the Best Actress prize at this year’s Oscars. Her profoundly emotional role demands that Buckley show both the naive sweetness of falling in love and the vindictive rage of a mother fighting against the world. Buckley portrays Agnes, William Shakespeare’s wife. She struggles with raising their children, being ostracized from society, and caring for her daughter, Judith, when she falls ill. Buckley has many moments to show off her immense talent through her subtle anger at William, separation from her village, and deep connection with her children. 

Buckley has a previous Academy Award nomination for 2021’s “The Lost Daughter,” and after sweeping the season with Best Actress victories at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, BAFTA, and Actor Awards, she can be certain she will claim the golden trophy. 

However, Rose Byrne’s ferociously powerful performance in “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” would be a more deserving winner. Just like in “Hamnet,” Byrne portrays a mother caring for her very sick daughter, but “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” is told almost entirely in close-ups of Byrne’s face. She carries the film on her back, showing immense emotional range. Alongside the film’s excellent direction and sound, her empathetic expressions and barely-hidden stress make the film as anxiety-inducing and propulsive as its unique script demands. 

Will win: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet.”

Should win: Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.”

Best Actor

Best Actor is one of the two most competitive races this awards season. So far, Timothée Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”), Wagner Moura (“The Secret Agent”), and Michael B. Jordan (“Sinners”) have all picked up precursor victories and are nominated alongside one another at the Oscars. 

Moura is perhaps the easiest to set aside, as foreign-language performances historically have struggled picking up acting victories, bringing the race down to Chalamet and Jordan. Both of their films performed strongly with nominations, picking up Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Screenplay nominations at the Academy Awards. 

While Chalamet is the loquacious, scene-stealing center of “Marty Supreme,” showing off his top-tier table tennis skills throughout, his steam may be fading, as Jordan recently picked up the Actor Award. Jordan plays twins Smoke and Stack in “Sinners,” having to juggle their distinct personalities and motivations, often within the same scene. Given the strength of “Sinners,” which also won Best Ensemble at the Actor Awards and has consistently won Best Original Screenplay throughout the season, Jordan is the most likely winner in this tight race. 

Even though Chalamet delivers a heart-pounding, enrapturing performance in “Marty Supreme,” his fellow nominee Ethan Hawke would be the most deserving winner for his turn as Lorenz Hart in “Blue Moon.” Hawke plays an alcoholic lyricist as his artistic partner, Richard Rodgers, leaves him to create a far more successful production. The film’s themes of lost friendship, unrequited love, and seeking validation are universal, and Hawke expresses them beautifully in his extensive, complex monologues. 

Will win: Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners.”

Should win: Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon.”

Best Supporting Actress

This year’s Best Supporting Actress nominees have been in fierce competition, making this the least predictable category. 

Teyana Taylor features in “One Battle After Another” as a revolutionary in the French 75, with many exciting, powerful scenes in her breakout role. Although her character is only featured in the prologue of the film, she won a Golden Globe for her performance. And with “One Battle After Another” stacking up as the Best Picture frontrunner, Taylor’s role cannot be counted out. 

In “Weapons,” Amy Madigan stars as Gladys, the mysterious and villainous aunt of a third grade student. She has picked up surprising victories at the Critics’ Choice and Actor Awards and given endearing speeches along the way. Madigan is also the category’s veteran, being both the oldest nominee and the only previous Academy Award nominee, for 1985’s “Twice in a Lifetime.” Still, she has a small role in a horror film, doesn’t show up until the second half of the movie, and her nomination is the only Oscar category “Weapons” is competing for.

In “Sinners,” Wunmi Mosaku plays Annie, Smoke’s wife, for which she won the BAFTA award. She is in both fighting and emotional scenes, including a key one she shares with Jordan where they discuss the death of their daughter. Mosaku, a British and Nigerian actress, also has a flawless Southern accent throughout and steals many of the limited scenes she’s in. 

In divided races like these, focusing on the more important precursors of the Actor Awards and BAFTA awards usually helps, knocking Taylor out, even though she could always surprise on Oscar night. Madigan has the seniority and a flashier and more transformative role, but Mosaku is ultimately more likely to win the Academy Award thanks to the strength of “Sinners” as a whole. 

As for who deserves the prize, Madigan would be a fantastic and fun winner, demonstrating respect for the horror genre. But, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas picking up the win for her turn in “Sentimental Value” would be exceptional. 

In “Sentimental Value,” Lilleaas plays Agnes, a historian caught in the middle of a fight between her absent filmmaker father, Gustav (Stellan Skarsgård), and sister, Nora (Renate Reinsve). She juggles her desires to reconnect with her father, shield her son, and stay on her sister’s side. In the climax of the film, Lilleaas shares a heartbreaking scene with Reinsve, beautifully speaking to the powerful emotional connection that siblings share. 

Will win: Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners.”

Should win: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value.”

Best Supporting Actor

Despite early uncertainty in the Best Supporting Actor race, Sean Penn’s recent BAFTA and Actor Award victories ensure that he is likely to pick up the gold trophy on March 15. 

In “One Battle After Another,” Penn plays Colonel Steven J. Lockjaw, the military officer intent on hunting down Bob and Willa. Penn’s performance is extraordinarily impressive, as he gives Lockjaw a characteristically stiff walk, boiling anger, and searing intensity in everything that he does.

Penn’s victory will be extremely deserved, as just watching Lockjaw’s rigid gait and searching glances as he crosses a room reveals so much about his character. Penn’s key scene with Willa in a church is fascinating, and his villainous portrayal rivals Byrne’s for the best performance of the year. 

Will win: Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another.”

Should Win: Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another.”

Best Adapted Screenplay

Paul Thomas Anderson should be confident that he will pick up the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay for “One Battle After Another.” His film has an independently thrilling screenplay, propulsively moving through a prologue, time jump, and a completely redesigned ending while juggling multiple storylines at once. 

The film is based on Thomas Pynchon’s novel “Vineland,” but only loosely. Anderson impressively brought the book into the modern day and added critiques of immigration enforcement policy. “One Battle After Another’s” screenplay will be a deserving winner for a phenomenal film whose script is both searingly relevant to our current political moment and highly entertaining. 

With regard to his odds, Anderson has picked up Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, and BAFTA wins for Best Screenplay, sweeping the season. The Academy has also recently focused on awarding films with auteur writers, or screenwriters who also directed their films, such as in “American Fiction,” “CODA,” and “The Father,” all of which are good signs for Anderson taking home the trophy.

Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another.”

Should win: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another.”

Best Original Screenplay

“Sinners” will shine in the Best Original Screenplay category come Oscar night. Even though Coogler has consistently lost to Anderson in Best Director, he has picked up this prize at the Critics’ Choice and BAFTA award ceremonies. The rich script of “Sinners” bends monster fighting, music, religion, family ties, and lost love into two strong hours of cinema, and the Academy’s love for it will certainly manifest here. 

As for who should win, this category is stacked, and any of the five nominees would be deserving. Jafar Panahi’s anti-government thriller “It Was Just an Accident,” Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt’s devastating family drama “Sentimental Value,” and Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie’s thrilling and energetic “Marty Supreme” would all be strong winners in their own right, but Robert Kaplow’s script for “Blue Moon” would be the best choice. 

Kaplow carries so much of the plot in just the main character’s monologues. So little physical action takes place, but the way he employs words to tell a compelling story of love and loss is absolutely riveting and deserving of the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay.

Will win: Ryan Coogler, “Sinners.”

Should win: Robert Kaplow, “Blue Moon.”

Remaining Predictions:

Animated Feature: 

Will win: “KPop Demon Hunters.”

Should win: “KPop Demon Hunters.”

Casting: 

Will win: “Sinners.” 

Should win: “Marty Supreme.”

Cinematography:

Will win: “One Battle After Another.”

Should win: “One Battle After Another.”

Costume Design: 

Will win: “Frankenstein.” 

Should win: “Avatar: Fire and Ash.”

Documentary Feature: 

Will win: “The Perfect Neighbor.”

Should win: “Come See Me in the Good Light.”

Film Editing: 

Will win: “One Battle After Another.”

Should win: “One Battle After Another.”

International Film: 

Will win: “Sentimental Value.”

Should win: “Sentimental Value.”

Makeup & Hairstyling: 

Will win: “Frankenstein.” 

Should win: “The Ugly Stepsister.”

Original Score: 

Will win: “Sinners.” 

Should win: “Bugonia.”

Original Song: 

Will win: “Golden” (“KPop Demon Hunters”). 

Should win: “I Lied to You” (“Sinners”).

Production Design: 

Will win: “Frankenstein.” 

Should win: “Marty Supreme.”

Sound: 

Will win: “F1.” 

Should win: “Sinners.”

Visual Effects: 

Will win: “Avatar: Fire and Ash.”

Should win: “Avatar: Fire and Ash.”