Staff Columnists
The Ivory Soapbox: Hurricane Sandy will not affect election
The destruction wrought by Hurricane Sandy covered multiple states, caused billions of dollars in damages and took more than 100 lives. Additionally, concerns have been raised as to the storm’s effect on voter turnout, with alarmists worrying that the Democratic vote in particular will be suppressed. While fewer votes may be cast, turnout will not be greatly affected, and election results will remain unchanged.
The most obvious reason not to worry is the length of time between when Hurricane Sandy struck and the election. The hurricane made landfall early on Oct. 29 and by Oct. 31 had largely dissipated. Over six days will have been available to make sure that voting is uninterrupted and President Barack Obama has been a huge proponent of recovery efforts.
Additionally, extra measures are being taken to ensure that, in the event that voting remains difficult, Americans will be able to cast a ballot on Election Day. New Jersey, the state hit hardest by Sandy, has issued several directives to ameliorate the effects of the hurricane. For example, voters will be allowed to vote electronically either via fax or email until 5 p.m. Further, all displaced voters will be able to cast a provisional ballot from any polling location in the state, with local officials ensuring that the vote will be counted in the proper district.
The discussion on voter turnout has centered specifically on Democratic voter turnout, with The Economist noting that “car-driving conservative retirees still turn out in driving rain, when bus-taking lower-income workers just back from a night shift are more likely to give rain-soaked polls a miss.” This may be true in extremely general terms, but many of the most affected areas are, in fact, staunchly Republican. Ocean County, for example, which voted for McCain by a margin of about 50,000 in 2008, was demolished by the hurricane, as were other GOP strongholds, a rarity in New Jersey. Indeed, relative to their total state populations, it’s possible that Republicans will be more affected by the storm than will Democrats.
Assuming, however, that it is primarily Democratic voters who vote in decreased numbers because of the storm, there is still no reason to worry. The states affected are all staunchly Democratic and are expected to vote for Obama for a second time. As far as Senate races go, the states are, once again, leaning solidly enough in the Democratic direction that their election results will not be affected. The only races in which the storm might possibly affect the outcomes are for the House of Representatives, but coastal districts are almost all relatively safe in one direction or the other. The only true toss-up in the area, New York’s first district, will see Democratic turn-out increased with a Democratic incumbent sitting on the top of the ballot, making up for any potential losses due to the storm. Regardless, control of the House is unlikely to change hands this cycle, with Democrats needing to pick up 25 seats to take the majority, so even if a few races are pushed in a new direction, the national effect would be negligible.
On a philosophical level, it’s a tragedy that voter turnout might be lower because of the hurricane. Voting is a right and a responsibility, and it is incumbent upon everyone who is capable of casting a ballot to do so. Practically speaking, however, few Americans who wish to vote will be prevented from doing so, and the only conceivable effect Hurricane Sandy might have on the election would be to deliver the popular vote, by the tiniest of margins, to Mitt Romney.