Only three things are certain in life: death, taxes, and heated debate over the Grammy Awards. The nominations, the ultimate winners, the ceremony itself — year after year, the process is plagued with controversy. Sometimes, it’s simple fan outrage that their favorite artist was snubbed, other times, it’s genuinely confusing and problematic things done by the academy itself.

So, how do the 2025 nominees look? Shockingly – pretty good. Despite a few surprises and a few unpleasant consistencies (hi Taylor!), it seems like the Grammy voters are, for the most part, in touch with what’s actually popular, relevant, and critically acclaimed – something that they’ve struggled to prove in the past. 

So, the four main categories: starting with Record of the Year, which awards the recording and production of a song (as opposed to Song of the Year, which focuses more on composition and songwriting). 

I can see this going a number of ways – Billie Eilish, for one, has proven herself to be a Grammys darling, and “Birds of a Feather” was her biggest hit in a hot minute. I think, however, that the Grammys would want to wait and give her the biggest honor – Album of the Year. This leaves a number of contenders, my personal pick being Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso,” the breezy, earworm-y objective song of the summer (although one could make case for Kendrick Lamars “Not Like Us,” also nominated in this category). With such a blockbuster year, Carpenter should undoubtedly receive one of the four big awards – and with “Espresso” being the best and biggest song from “Short n’Sweet,” this is the category she should walk away with an award from. 

However, my prediction is that Beyonce’s “Texas Hold ‘Em” will be the ultimate winner – the Grammys love Beyonce, and yet have some strange aversion to awarding her Album of the Year, so my guess is that she’ll do very well in the more minor categories, with one win in the big four. There is also a puzzling nomination for the Beatles “Now and Then,” seemingly another legacy award – a case of the Grammys realizing that they haven’t showered a now-critically acclaimed artist in their prime, so they try to correct their course. It just begs the question: if this is what wins, who, exactly, is it for? 

The Song of the Year nominees look eerily similar to Record of the year, and therefore similar odds apply – Beyoncé holds a substantial chance of taking it, as do Eilish and Carpenter. However, the addition of Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars’ boring and predictable but well-executed smash “Die With a Smile” could throw a wrench in things – they are, after all, two of the biggest current artists working, and they both hold a history of winning Grammy awards. This category, however, is one where I think Chappell Roan should get her flowers –  “Good Luck, Babe” wasn’t just a hit but also an infectious and expertly written song from one of the biggest and most creative new personalities in pop. 

In the Best New Artist category (which should really be named Best Breakthrough Artist to avoid confusion), two artists immediately jump out, both of whom have been previously discussed: Sabrina Carpenter and Chappell Roan. Roan undoubtedly deserves the award – for one, because she truly went from unknown to mega-star, but also because “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess” was a superb album. Roan is genuinely exciting – she’s outspoken, unpredictable, and unabashedly herself, and represents a larger-than-life performer that harkens back to the imperial eras of Lady Gaga and Katy Perry. This being said – her outspokenness is perhaps too much of a risk for the Grammys, who I’m guessing will opt for the no less family-friendly but safer bet in Carpenter. Although other artists in this category also had breakthrough years with excellent outputs (Doechii, RAYE) Roan and Carpenter both reached a level of stardom that the others did not. 

Finally, Album of the Year. Thus, we need to acknowledge the Taylor Swift in the room – also nominated but omitted from my discussion of the Record and Song awards. The issue with Swift’s nominations isn’t that she should never be acknowledged for her work, because she should – when it’s deserving. Her nominations in 2021 and 2022 for “Folklore” and “Evermore” felt earned because she had created two albums of genuine quality that pushed the envelope of who Swift was as a popular music artist. But for the bloated and repetitive “The Tortured Poets Department?” It feels like the academy is recognizing the magnitude and relevance Swift holds as a cultural figure, not the music she creates.

That being said, the same rhetoric could be used against what is, in my opinion, the album that should go home with the award – “Brat.” Without a doubt, the cultural impact of “Brat” – in fashion, in design, in politics, on social media – outshined the music. Yet – at the center of Brat’s cultural movement has always been the bright green beating heart of the album itself, whereas if you get to the core of the nomination behind TTPD, you might find Swift, you might find the Eras Tour – you definitely won’t find the music. TTPD seems to simply be a mediocre vehicle for the Academy to tell people that they know Swift is arguably the biggest living music artist. 

If the Recording Academy continues to throw nominations and awards at everything Swift releases, it not only reduces the legitimacy of the awards themselves but also of Swift’s body of work – because when she actually deserves nominations, they will be reduced to “oh, she’s nominated every time,” which isn’t fair either. 

But, beyond the Taylor Swift of it all – this category is, surprisingly, pretty good. A combination of both the most popular and critically acclaimed music of the year – although “Brat” would be the ideal winner, I wouldn’t be upset if Beyoncé, Carpenter, Roan, or, oddly enough, André 3000 – whose nomination for an ambient jazz album is a welcome surprise – went home with the award. 

Aside from a few other missteps from the Grammys this year (why are we still nominating Chris Brown for awards?), the nominations across the board are pretty good – discourse will be relatively quiet until the winners are announced, when I’m sure people will once again erupt in discontent. But, as long as we’re not in for a Swift sweep, I’m personally looking forward to the ceremony. Who really cares about the Grammys, anyway?