The 86th annual Academy Awards will air Sunday night on ABC. Hosted by Ellen DeGeneres, this year’s awards ceremony features an impressive array of nominees. Here are Cadenza’s predictions of who will win in the major categories.

BEST PICTURE

‘12 Years a Slave’
‘American Hustle’
‘Dallas Buyers Club’
‘Gravity’
‘Her’
‘Nebraska’
‘Philomena’
‘The Wolf of Wall Street’

The Academy’s decision to switch to the format with a maximum of 10 nominees for Best Picture a few years ago was odd, but this would have been a good year to fill all 10 spots. Despite cries from the soapbox that Hollywood no longer challenges itself, this ended up being a very strong year. If it were up to me, I would have given that last spot to “Fruitvale Station” or “Short Term 12.” Ryan Coogler did an incredible job directing his first feature with “Fruitvale,” and “Short Term 12” was only Destin Daniel Cretton’s second, so there is a good chance we will be seeing both of them in the future.
As good as this year was, this is a two-horse race. “12 Years a Slave” has been the front-runner since it was released and is one of the most wrenching films of all time. Thanks to its technical mastery, “Gravity” is the only other film with even a chance of weathering the emotional storm that is Steve McQueen’s film.

Favorite: “12 Years a Slave”
Spoiler: “Gravity”
Should have been there: “Short Term 12” or “Fruitvale Station”

-Trevor Leuzinger

BEST LEADING ACTOR

Christian Bale – ‘American Hustle’
Bruce Dern – ‘Nebraska’
Leonardo DiCaprio – ‘Wolf of Wall Street’
Chiwetel Ejiofor – ‘12 Years a Slave’
Matthew McConaughey – ‘Dallas Buyers Club’

The Best Actor race is perhaps the most contested one of this year’s Oscars. The category is stacked with established talent, including past nominees Bruce Dern and Leonardo DiCaprio and past winner Christian Bale. Even though critics seem to be rallying behind Chiwetel Ejiofor for his deeply moving turn in “12 Years a Slave,” Matthew McConaughey has emerged as the clear favorite. The Academy loves a good transformation, so McConaughey’s much-talked-about physical transformation (plus his overall career transformation) to play AIDS patient Ron Woodroof will probably win the voters over. And that’s not to say that McConaughey doesn’t have serious acting chops, too—he portrayed the complex, suffering character masterfully, and the role has already garnered him a Golden Globe and a Screen Actors Guild Award.

Favorite: Matthew McConaughey
Spoiler: Chiwetel Ejiofor
Should have been there: Tom Hanks, “Captain Phillips”

– Katharine Jaruzelski

BEST LEADING ACTRESS

Amy Adams – ‘American Hustle’
Cate Blanchett – ‘Blue Jasmine’
Sandra Bullock – ‘Gravity’
Judi Dench – ‘Philomena’
Meryl Streep – ‘August: Osage County’

By all accounts, Cate Blanchett is a lock to win after her magnificent turn as the down-on-her-luck titular character in Woody Allen’s most recent film, “Blue Jasmine.” The rest of the actresses on the nomination’s list are great, but their characters simply did not have the same depth. Amy Adams has the best chance to pull off the upset after playing the double-crossing, accent-switching, cleavage-baring Sydney Prosser in “American Hustle,” but it would take a trick as big as the one she and Christian Bale’s character pull in the movie for her to get it. The biggest snub in this category was Brie Larson as Grace in “Short Term 12.” Playing a young woman struggling with her own issues while running a foster care home, Larson is absolutely spellbinding. Balancing the pain and the humor in the movie required her to walk a tightrope, and she made it look easy.

Favorite: Cate Blanchett
Spoiler: Amy Adams
Should have been there: Brie Larson, “Short Term 12”

-Trevor Leuzinger

BEST DIRECTOR

Alfonso Cuaron – ‘Gravity’
Steve McQueen – ‘12 Years a Slave’
Alexander Payne – ‘Nebraska’
David O. Russell – ‘American Hustle’
Martin Scorsese – ‘The Wolf of Wall Street’

Last year, Best Director went to Ang Lee for “Life of Pi” although “Argo” won Best Picture. A similar split is possible this year, with “12 Years a Slave” winning Best Picture while Alfonso Cuaron wins for “Gravity.” However, Steve McQueen is a legitimate possibility to win for his direction of “12 Years.” Either way, the Academy will likely make history on Sunday evening, either awarding the first black man or the first Hispanic man. Both would make deserving winners. “American Hustle” has faded from the memory of voters after coming on strong during the nomination period while Martin Scorsese and Alexander Payne have ardent supporters, but too few of them to really affect the race. Notably absent is Spike Jonze, whose direction of “Her” managed to make what could be a creepy or campy premise into something poignant and honest.

Favorite: Alfonso Cuarón
Spoiler: Steve McQueen
Should have been there: Spike Jonze, “Her”

-Georgie Morvis

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Barkhad Abdi – ‘Captain Phillips’
Bradley Cooper – ‘American Hustle’
Michael Fassbender – ‘12 Years a Slave’
Jonah Hill – ‘Wolf of Wall Street’
Jared Leto – ‘Dallas Buyers Club’

This one’s a shoe-in for Jared Leto. While all the other nominees are certainly deserving (and, unlike the Best Actor category, there were no obvious snubs), the chances of anyone other than Leto winning are slim to none. For his first film role since 2009, Leto completely transformed himself to play Rayon, an HIV-positive transgender woman who teams up with homophobic rodeo cowboy Woodroof to deal AIDS drugs illegally. Leto’s passion and commitment to the role shine through in his complex and moving portrayal. He’s also already won a Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild Award for the role. The only nominee who could maybe edge Leto out for the award is Barkhad Abdi, the complete newcomer who stole every scene in “Captain Phillips” as Muse, a Somalian pirate, but don’t count on it.

Favorite: Jared Leto
Spoiler: Barkhad Abdi… but it will
definitely be Leto
Should have been there: Sam Rockwell, “The Way, Way Back”

– Katharine Jaruzelski

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jennifer Lawrence – ‘American Hustle’
Lupita Nyong’o – ‘12 Years a Slave’
Julia Roberts – ‘August: Osage County’
June Squibb – ‘Nebraska’
Sally Hawkins – ‘Blue Jasmine’

Despite the other actresses’ strong performances, the only competition in this category is between Lupita Nyong’o and Jennifer Lawrence. Nyong’o’s unshakeable American film debut as Patsey, a tortured young slave in “12 Years a Slave,” blew critics away while Lawrence’s sharp, comedic portrayal as Rosalyn, a bored, neglected housewife in “American Hustle,” has also received critical acclaim. Given the Academy’s general tendency for under-recognition of minority actors, Lawrence could very well win. But the award really should go to Nyong’o, who lost it out to Lawrence at the Golden Globes and British Academy Film Awards, because her moving performance as a tortured and raped slave is frankly more meaningful than a portrayal of a housewife obsessed with a Swiss topcoat.

Favorite: Lupita Nyong’o
Spoiler: Jennifer Lawrence
Should have been there: Scarlett Johansson, “Her”

– Tina Xiang

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Woody Allen – ‘Blue Jasmine’
Craig Borten, Melissa Wallack – ‘Dallas Buyers Club’
Spike Jonze – ‘Her’
Bob Nelson – ‘Nebraska’
David O. Russell, Eric Singer – ‘American Hustle’

This is safely a two-horse race as there is no way the Academy will recognize Woody Allen for “Blue Jasmine” after the recent controversy, and “Dallas Buyers Club” and “Nebraska”’s Best Picture nominations aren’t based on the quality of their writing. It’ll be two American auteurs known more for their direction facing off for the prize. “American Hustle” has broad support across the Academy with nominations in all the major categories while “Her” has taken many of the precursor awards that usually predict a winner. I think “Hustle” will triumph simply by having been seen more than “Her” and being more accessible to older Oscar voters, despite “Her” being one of the most original screenplays ever nominated. This category is missing its normal female-driven, indie movie screenplay, and I can’t think of a more well-written moment in cinema than the titular character’s monologue on love in “Frances Ha.”

Favorite: David O. Russell, Eric Singer
Spoiler: Spike Jonze
Should have been there: Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig, “Frances Ha”

– Georgie Morvis