Dozens of members of the WashU community gathered in Umrath Lounge to hear Andrew Weiss speak as the latest installment of the Crisis & Conflict in Historical Perspective Speaker Series and Public Form. Weiss, who currently serves as Vice President at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, provided a short lecture on the Russia-Ukraine war on March 4.

Andrew Weiss’ “How the War in Ukraine Ends” talk came with the dust still settling from U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s dramatic Oval Office clash, and with the continuance of U.S. aid to Ukraine top of mind for the international community.

Weiss began his talk by highlighting a lack of accuracy in Western predictions about Ukraine’s ongoing conflict with Russia. He pointed out experts’ failures to predict Putin’s rise to power, Ukraine’s movement for independence, and even the war itself. 

“Experts like myself need to demonstrate more humility,” Weiss said.

Weiss laid out broad issues underlying the war, including international political fragmentation, a global rise in populism, and U.S. retrenchment. He then discussed more immediate factors, such as the 1997 NATO-Ukraine Charter, which drew Ukraine closer to the West. Weiss also highlighted the 2004 Orange Revolution and the 2014 Revolution of Dignity. The intense protest, conflict, and political upheaval which characterized the uprisings were even more direct attempts by Ukraine to shuck off Russian dominance. 

Weiss identified the Charter and both revolutions as “unfinished business” for the Kremlin. 

Weiss also discussed Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine, and compared it to the U.S.’s war in Iraq, referring to the U.S.’s decision to initiate the years-long Middle Eastern war. Weiss drew a comparison between the two conflicts, highlighting the unexpectedly protracted nature of Russia’s war against Ukraine and its massive costs in human life and resources.

“[Russia’s invasion was one of the] biggest foreign policy blunders of all-time, besides the U.S. in Iraq,” Weiss said.  

Weiss added that it is essential to understand that decision-making in Moscow is driven by President Vladimir Putin alone. He said that Putin publicly justifies the war with the false historical narrative that Russia has a right to Ukraine’s territory. 

”The war on Ukraine was [Putin’s] fait accompli attempt to create facts on the ground,” Weiss said.

Weiss said that Putin feared an increasing Western presence in Ukraine, threatening to tip the balance of powers in the region out of Russia’s favor. By invading, Weiss said that Putin was attempting to recreate the Taliban’s recent success in Afghanistan, a conflict for which U.S. support crumbled and Europe failed to unify. 

Hoping for the same result in Ukraine was a grave case of “overconfidence” on the part of Putin, Weiss said.

Weiss then discussed the U.S.’s role in the war. He said that the American foreign policy approach to Russia was turned on its head after Ukraine managed to stop Putin’s invasion in its tracks. 

Ukraine displayed shocking levels of “heroism and unity,” Weiss said. 

With the second Trump presidency, however, Weiss said that American politics is facing a low point not seen “since the Civil War.”

In his efforts to create rapid changes, Trump has used a “shock and awe governance” style, Weiss said. 

According to Weiss, key aspects of the war have become apparent. These include its long-term nature and Putin’s ability to maintain political stability in Russia. In Weiss’ estimation, U.S. hopes for a regime change in Russia to end the war were dashed long ago, as Russia’s adaptation to a wartime economy has made the war not only feasible, but popular among the country’s elites.

The U.S. has recently learned to face these “uncomfortable realities,”  Weiss said.

Weiss added that Russia is making battlefield gains, and that U.S. policy is being severely mishandled by Trump. Weiss said that Trump is adamant that concessions from both sides can create lasting peace, but is not willing to entertain Putin’s steep demands.

There is “no neat and tidy solution available,” Weiss said.

Weiss said that Ukraine needs strong security guarantees before peace talks can begin, something he said Zelenskyy made clear in his recent meeting with Trump.

However, this is not a reality the Trump administration appears willing to face, Weiss lamented. Weiss said that not only does Trump want to keep Ukraine out of NATO, but he wants to thrust the problem of Ukraine out of U.S. hands onto an “underequipped, un-unified” Europe. 

“Taking Trump’s foreign policy at face value,” Weiss said, it seems Trump has a “personal affinity for Putin.”

Additionally, the U.S. seemingly has no interest in helping Europe “meet the moment,” which they certainly cannot do in their present condition, Weiss said. 

Weiss concluded with a foreboding message about Ukraine’s future.

Current U.S. policy is “laying the seeds for more problems down the road,” Weiss said.