After missing last week’s game with an injury, senior Clark Stephens is expected to return for the Wheaton game. (Syndey Strominger | Contributing Photographer)

Since joining the College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin (CCIW), the WashU football team has never made the Division III NCAA Tournament. WashU has had two major thorns in its side during its time in the CCIW — No. 1 North Central College and No. 25 Wheaton College. Since 2019, WashU has lost every matchup with North Central and Wheaton. 

That could change on Oct. 26, when the Bears host Wheaton in a crucial matchup with playoff implications for both teams. Head coach Aaron Keen bluntly told his team that the stakes are high for this game. 

“Our playoffs start this week,” Keen said. 

WashU enters the game with a 5-1 record and received votes in this week’s D3Football.com Top 25 poll. In the Bears’ five wins, they have outscored their opponents 226-76. In its lone loss of the season, a week three blowout at the hands of North Central, WashU lost 49-9. 

Wheaton, located 30 miles west of Chicago, may be a small school, but it is a football powerhouse. The Thunder have advanced to the NCAA tournament in the past three seasons under the leadership of head coach Jesse Scott. Since 2021, when Scott took over, Wheaton has outscored WashU 118-80. Each year, however, Wheaton’s margin of victory over WashU has decreased. 

Last season, the Thunder beat the Bears in heartbreaking fashion. WashU was down by one score late in the fourth quarter, but back-to-back touchdowns from running backs Fred Ware and Ken Hamilton, then a sophomore and junior, respectively,  gave WashU the lead with just 67 seconds to go. On the last play of the game, Wheaton receiver Seth Kortenhoeven made an improbable catch on a Hail Mary to the end zone. Still down by one, Wheaton decided to go for two. The Thunder called a pitch play to Wheaton running back Giovanni Weeks, who barely broke the plane with his outstretched arm as he was hit by a WashU linebacker. 

“Our players and our coaches are looking forward to the opportunity [to play Wheaton again],” Keen said. “We’ve got to do the right things in preparation and show up to play great football on Saturday.” 

On offense, the Bears are led by their run game. Ware, Hamilton, and senior Kenvorris Campbell have dominated opponent defenses this season so far. Sophomore quarterback Levi Moore has also contributed rushing yards this season. WashU is less reliant on the passing game due to issues with interceptions and a nagging injury to senior starting quarterback Clark Stephens. Stephens did not play in WashU’s victory over Elmhurst University but should be ready to take snaps against Wheaton. The Bears’ defense has shined in wins over Carroll University and Carthage College, but they looked vulnerable to long passing plays against North Central. To win against Wheaton, the Bears will need to put their memories from last season aside and play a solid game on both sides of the ball.

“For a lot of guys, lots of emotions will come out this week,” Hamilton said. “Our job is to regulate those emotions in a positive way so we can play the way we’re capable of playing. Once we do that, the game has already been won.”

Wheaton is led by quarterback Mark Forcucci, who transferred from the Division I College of Holy Cross. Running back Weeks and receiver Ben Bonga are well-known to the WashU defense from last year’s matchup. Despite the national top-25 ranking, the Thunder have looked vulnerable this year. Wheaton lost its Week 1 matchup against the University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh, lost big to North Central, and has put up similar results to WashU against the CCIW opponents. 

This season, the D-III tournament was expanded from 32 to 40 teams. On each side of the bracket, teams are grouped by geographical region, meaning WashU is competing for its tournament bid against other Midwest colleges. The top team in the CCIW makes the tournament automatically, but North Central has all but clinched the conference title. In recent years, WashU has frequently missed out on the tournament, while Wheaton has been selected because of its success among Midwestern teams. 

The NCAA heavily factors in its Power Index ranking (NPI) — a metric that takes into account the strength of schedule and record against all opponents — in making tournament bid decisions. In the first NPI ranking of the season Monday, Oct. 21, the NCAA ranked WashU 39th and Wheaton 57th.

If WashU beats Wheaton on Saturday, not only would WashU improve its resume and ranking, but it would also knock down a regional and conference opponent, blocking its path to the playoff. WashU, therefore, would move into a good position going into the home stretch of the season. Lose to Wheaton, though, and it gets a lot harder to make the tournament. 

The D-III football statistician Logan Hansen gives WashU a 93% playoff chance if they win. That number drops to 3% with a loss. Hansen rates the WashU v. Wheaton game as the highest-leverage D-III football game in the country this week. 

Playoff implications. Two of the premier D-III football teams in the country. A Saturday afternoon at Francis Olympic Field. What more could you ask for?

“This is why our players came to a place like WashU,” Keen said. “They wanted to be part of a championship football program, and they know that we’re going to have these opportunities that force us to play our best.”