Illustration by Erica Shi | Student Life

2023 Recap:

The St. Louis Cardinals began last season with postseason aspirations, but sputtered early and never recovered en route to a last-place finish and a 71-91 record. A big part of the decline began with the retirements of key players Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina after the 2022 season. Furthermore, 2022 National League (NL) MVP Paul Goldschmidt and third-place finisher Nolan Arenado took massive steps back, playing slightly above league average with the rest of the team, unable to pick up the slack.

On the mound, things weren’t much better. Their aging pitching staff managed an ERA of 4.79 (24th out of 30 teams) and averaged just three and two-thirds innings per start, compared to the league average of five. This decline can be partially attributed to a new MLB rule banning the shift (teams would shift their defense in years past depending on if a hitter had a tendency to hit the ball to one side or the other), which hit St. Louis pretty hard as a team that relied on elite defense and groundball pitchers to induce outs. With these short starts, the bullpen racked up a ton of mileage and, towards the end of games, became notorious for blowing leads or putting the game out of reach. However, arms like Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, and JoJo Romero showed signs of promise, putting forth several impressive stretches without allowing a run. 

2024 Preview:

A big emphasis this offseason for the Cardinals was an organizational shift, beginning with the hiring of Chaim Bloom, the former General Manager of the Boston Red Sox. Bloom placed an emphasis on pitching, immediately signing three veteran starters. The team’s key signing was Sonny Gray, the three-time All-Star and American League (AL) CY-Young award runner-up in 2023, who signed for three years and 75-million dollars. The Cards also locked down Kyle Gibson, a pitcher who can last six to seven quality innings, and Lance Lynn, a leader with over 15 years of MLB service time, to one-year deals. Each of these pitchers should help relieve the pressure off of fan-favorite starter Miles Mikolas and defense with many new and returning faces. These faces include sophomore Jordan Walker and rookie Masyn Winn; longtime Cardinal and leader in the clubhouse Matt Carpenter; and three-time World Series champion Brandon Crawford. However, the team lost some big bats, including Tyler O’Neill, who hit 42 home runs two years ago and was traded to the Boston Red Sox in December. The Cardinals currently have three key positional players — Tommy Edman, Lars Nootbar, and Dylan Carlson — slated to miss one to two months due to injuries. Despite these losses, the team looks poised to continue to develop a new young core with veteran leadership while remaining competitive. 

Keys for the Season:

Look for a bounceback season from veteran Paul Goldschmidt in the last year of his deal. He ended last season well below his career hitting marks but has been working on a new swing to help drive the ball to the opposite side of the field. 

In addition, Winn and Walker will look to replace the offseason departure of Tyler O’Neill. Winn looks like the shortstop of the future, with advanced bat-to-ball skills and the fastest average infield throw speed at 98.7 mph. Meanwhile, Walker is projected to be a 20-home-run and 20-steal player with solid defense in right field.

Pitchers Sonny Gray and Kyle Gibson need to stay healthy in order to deliver quality innings for the Redbirds. Currently aged 34 and 36 respectively, they’re at the point of their careers where pitchers tend to spend more time injured than on the field, and the Cardinals will hope that they can buck that trend. 

Prediction:

Currently, the Cardinals are at the bottom of the NL Central with a 6-7 record, but are also projected to win the division with 84.5 wins according to BETMGM. Though just a few games over five hundred, this ranks as the highest projected win total in the most competitive division in MLB, the NL Central, with every team within three wins of each other. However, I have the Pirates winning the division coming off an impressive offseason where they revamped their pitching staff and will get star player Oneil Cruz back from injury. Meanwhile, the Cardinals went through a lot of organizational shifts this offseason as the team commits to a culture change. As such, I believe that there will be an improvement from last year, but that it won’t be enough to make the playoffs as the team learns its new identity and lets the young players play. Give me an 80-82 record this year.