TV
Emmys 2012: Cadenza’s guide to who should win and who actually will
The Primetime Emmys are this Sunday, Sept. 23, at 6 p.m., and Jimmy Kimmel will host the show on ABC. We can’t predict if he’ll be funny (honestly, we miss Jimmy Fallon already), but we can guess the winners. Here are Cadenza’s predictions on who will triumph at the 64th Primetime Emmys.
Drama series
Showtime joined the critically acclaimed drama party with its new show “Homeland,” and PBS promoted “Downton Abbey” from Miniseries to this category, but other than that, HBO and AMC continued their drama reign. For HBO, “Game of Thrones” is one of its biggest crossover hits while “Boardwalk Empire” chugs along on critical acclaim and prestige. And AMC’s brilliance remained unparalleled with series-best seasons from both “Breaking Bad” and “Mad Men.” It’s safe to say that we’re in a golden age of television.
Will win: “Mad Men.” The overlap of the “Breaking Bad,” “Homeland” and “Game of Thrones” audience should be enough to ensure the series yet another Emmy win.
Should win: “Mad Men.” The show continued along its typical path of excellence in acting, directing and writing, becoming more consistently mind-blowing than ever.
–Georgie Morvis
Lead actor in a drama
The “Mad Men” acting curse continued last year as Jon Hamm lost out in a Bryan Cranston-less category. Now, Cranston has returned to the category, and the “Breaking Bad” star looks to be unstoppable to win yet again. The most likely spoiler isn’t even Hamm, but Damian Lewis, the “Homeland” star. Also in the running are Hugh Bonneville of “Downton Abbey,” Michael C. Hall of “Dexter” and Steve Buscemi of “Boardwalk Empire.” It says a lot about the quality of acting on the small screen when respected actors like Buscemi and Hamm aren’t favored to win or even upset.
Will win: Bryan Cranston. Walter White is the kingpin of Albuquerque, and Cranston is the king of the Emmys.
Should win: Jon Hamm. Don Draper is one of the great television creations and Hamm consistently brings his A-game, yet somehow he is Emmy-less.
–Georgie Morvis
Supporting Actress in a drama series
A deep category with women starring in a diverse group of shows, there is still a clear favorite, Claire Danes from “Homeland.” The rest of the nominees are Glenn Close (“Damages”), Kathy Bates (“Harry’s Law”), Elisabeth Moss (“Mad Men”), Michelle Dockery (“Downton Abbey”) and last year’s winner Julianna Margulies (“The Good Wife”). From newcomers coming to us across the pond to a few who have been around for decades, this category has a little bit of everything, and all of the women could make strong cases for winning this year.
Will win: Claire Danes. “Homeland” was a huge hit its first season in no small part because of her role as a terrorist-fighting CIA agent. She will likely be rightly rewarded for her role.
Should win: Michelle Dockery. BBC’s “Downton Abbey” gave us Yanks a look into the lives of a landed family and its servants. Dockery played the exasperating daughter Mary to perfection and deserves the Emmy.
–Trevor Leuzinger
Supporting Actor in a drama series
The field for Supporting Actor in a Drama has some real potential for upsets. Most bets may be on AMC’s “Breaking Bad” to reclaim the golden statute after the show’s absence from eligibility last year, but this year, first-time nominee Giancarlo Esposito (who played violent and unpredictable meth kingpin Gus Fring to perfection last season) is pitted against three-time nominee and 2010 category winner, Aaron Paul (Jesse Pinkman). However, the rest of the group shouldn’t be so easily dismissed—“Game of Thrones’” Peter Dinklage received last year’s accolade for his performance as Tyrion Lannister and could continue his run despite “Breaking Bad”’s return to the slate. Taking John Slattery’s place as the resident “Mad Men” nominee, Jared Harris (Lane Pryce) may pip his AMC counterparts at the post. Finally, as much as it pains me to say this, viewers shouldn’t count out the two “Downton Abbey” nominees Jim Carter (Mr. Carson) and Brendan Coyle (John Bates) as it’s evident from the show’s waterfall of nominations this year that the Emmy panel has some real affection for PBS’s period melodrama.
Will win: Giancarlo Esposito as Gustavo “Gus” Fring in AMC’s Breaking Bad. The enormous amount of critical acclaim Esposito received for his chilling turn as Fring, locked in a deadly yet engrossing battle for power with Walter White, is bound to carry some heavy weight with Emmy voters.
Should win: Giancarlo Esposito. Quite simply, his performance in the fourth season of a show that was already an Emmy and media darling was faultless. His ability to be one of the most terrifying yet composed and disturbingly patronizing villains on TV, while also lending humanity to what could have been a one-dimensional role, was stunning. No other performance is more deserving of the award.
–Kayla Hollenbaugh
Supporting actress in a drama series
Though at first glance the category appears to be wide open, with representatives from every Emmy-beloved show, two of the nominees have risen to become the frontrunners. Dame Maggie Smith continued to impress audiences with her wisecracks and one-liners in “Downton Abbey,” and Christina Hendricks completed a beautiful evolution from what was once a one-note role as Joan in “Mad Men.” It’s a tossup between those two, but any of the other actresses could emerge as a spoiler. Previous Emmy winners Archie Panjabi and Christine Baranski both garnered nominations for perennial favorite “The Good Wife” while Joanne Froggatt did the same for “Downton Abbey.” And in the show’s fourth season, Anna Gunn finally broke through as the long-suffering wife on “Breaking Bad.” It’s anyone’s guess as to who triumphs between Smith and Hendricks, though.
Will win: Dame Maggie Smith. Not only is she beloved in the industry, but her Dowager Countess is one of the great recent characters to grace television screens.
Should win: Christina Hendricks. One of the more underrated talents in “Mad Men,” she was finally given a true showcase, and she pulled it off brilliantly.
–Georgie Morvis
Outstanding comedy series
This year’s Outstanding Comedy Series nominations feature a nice balance of old standbys and new hits. “Modern Family” is widely expected to take home yet another golden statuette for ABC, but that doesn’t mean an upset is out of the question. HBO’s “Curb Your Enthusiasm” remains a cult favorite, and CBS’s “The Big Bang Theory” is just as hilarious as ever, although neither series did anything particularly extraordinary last season. The ever-funny “30 Rock” appears on this list every year and already has three Outstanding Comedy awards under its belt, so another win wouldn’t be a big surprise. HBO’s breakout female-driven comedies are also strong contenders this year—“Veep” could win over Academy voters with its lighthearted political satire, but critically acclaimed “Girls” has a better shot at toppling ABC’s reigning champ.
Will win: “Modern Family”
“Modern Family” has won Outstanding Comedy both years that it has been nominated, and given its stellar cast and consistently funny episodes, a three-peat is highly likely.
Should win: “Girls”
This spunky new show has already elevated its 26-year-old creator and star, Lena Dunham, to comedy icon status; however, its brazenly honest depiction of young women living in the city might be too much for the Academy voters (many of whom are older men).
–Katharine Jaruzelski
Lead actor in a comedy series
The range of comedy represented in the lead actor race this year runs from critically beloved to derided, or what most people would describe the Emmys as. Jim Parsons of “The Big Bang Theory” (who kept Steve Carrell from winning an Emmy as Michael Scott) and Louis C.K. (who is probably surprised to be nominated) look set to duel it out for the crown, but the category seems wide open enough to where anyone could sneak in. Alec Baldwin consistently wins for “30 Rock,” even when everyone else has counted him out, and Don Cheadle (“House of Lies”) is a movie star. Larry David is a cult favorite and has an endless Rolodex while Jon Cryer continued his inexplicable run for “Two and a Half Men.” This category is ripe for a shock winner.
Will win: Louis C.K. “Louie” is his brainchild, and if they loved him enough to nominate him, he’s probably going to win as well.
Should win: Alec Baldwin. Jack Donaghy is one of the show’s most consistently funny characters, and “30 Rock” is almost over.
–Georgie Morvis
Lead actress in a comedy series
There are seven nominees in this category, and all but one of them are already household names. Julia Louis-Dreyfus returned to television after “Seinfeld” and “The New Adventures of Old Christine” to play the “Veep” on HBO to acclaim. Tina Fey, Amy Poehler and Edie Falco continued in their roles on their shows, and in any other year, they could all win by a landslide. Melissa McCarthy might have ridden a wave of “Bridesmaids” sentiment to the Emmy crown last year, but maybe voters genuinely like “Mike and Molly.” And Zooey Deschanel may be a “New Girl” to television, but she was already a recognizable movie star. The only true new face is Lena Dunham, but the Emmys loved her enough to give her a nomination as an actress, a director and a writer, so the multi-hyphenate could upset the establishment. I’m more excited to see what shenanigans the nominees came up with for the ceremony than to see any of them lose.
Will win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus. She’s a comedy titan, but she’s not just coasting on name recognition. Her performance on “Veep” is among the funniest on television today.
Should win: Amy Poehler. The way Leslie Knope has evolved over the series (now in its fourth season) is a testament to Poehler’s dedication and talent.
–Georgie Morvis
Supporting actor in a comedy series
The closest thing to certain in the Emmy’s this year is that someone from “Modern Family” will win this category. Why? Because four out of the six nominees are from that show. Ed O’Neill, Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Ty Burrell (won last year) and Eric Stonestreet (won two years ago) play four of the men in the extended cast that makes up Modern Family. The nominees are rounded out by Bill Hader, from “Saturday Night Live,” and Max Greenfield, who plays Schmidt on “New Girl.”
“Modern Family” has done well at the Emmys the last few years, and this can be expected to continue; the only question is will they choose someone new?Will win: Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Mitchell Pritchett), the straight man in his comedic duo with Eric Stonestreet, will likely win it this year.
Should win: Ed O’Neill as the grumpy-but-loving patriarch of the fam’ deserves this one.
–Trevor Leuzinger
Supporting actress in a comedy series
This category is chock-full of funny women, but the sad passing of Kathryn Joosten of “Desperate Housewives” casts a sad light over it. Her posthumous nod and consistent work on television should be enough to win. If not, two of the “Modern Family” ladies, Sofia Vergara and Julie Bowen, were also nominated, along with retiring “SNL” treasure Kristen Wiig. Merritt Wever of “Nurse Jackie” finally received a nod for her work on the show, while former “Blossom” star Mayim Bialik picked one up for a role on “The Big Bang Theory.”
Will win: Kathryn Joosten. She was a memorable part of two of the best network shows of the 2000s (“The West Wing” and “Housewives”), and this is the last chance to reward her.
Should win: Kristen Wiig. She was the superstar of “Saturday Night Live” and beloved as well. Now she’s about to be a movie star; an Emmy would be worthy icing on the cake.
–Georgie Morvis