Picture this: it’s the year 1990. “Ice Ice Baby” tops the Billboard charts, and the Soviet Union remains intact. The LA Rams have yet to even move to St. Louis, where they would go on stay for 21 years before returning to Hollywood. Barry Bonds is about to win his first of seven MVPs, and all but one member of the Cardinals lineup haven’t been born yet. Current skipper Oliver Marmol has yet to start Kindergarten.

It’s also the last time the St. Louis Cardinals finished at the bottom of their division.
With their season coming to a close this weekend, the Cardinals will officially turn the page on a nightmare campaign that saw them rapidly fall from division favorites to bottom dwellers. For a franchise that had finished above .500 for the prior 15 seasons and that defines failure as anything short of a postseason berth, the 2023 campaign was a disaster through and through.

In March, I wrote that the Cardinals had “one of the best rosters in the league,” and expected them to once again finish around 90 wins. When the Cardinals’ beat-writer Derrick Gould came to speak with Student Life in April, he started with similar enthusiasm. But after a slow start, the Cardinals were never able to turn their season around, and they finished with the fifth-worst record in baseball.

What Happened:

Management shifted their focus to 2024 months ago, trading away two of their best starting pitchers — Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty — along with impact relievers Chris Stratton and Jordan Hicks and veteran shortstop Paul DeJong, in separate deals that netted a return of seven prospects and two young arms. Still, the level of subpar performance across the board even in the second half of the season was striking.

The biggest disappointment came from the team’s star tandem of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, who finished first and third respectively in the 2022 NL MVP voting. One year later, both players posted their lowest OPS in a decade and saw their wins above replacement (WAR) sliced by more than half (Goldschmidt from 7.8 to 3.3, Arenado from 7.9 to 2.3).

While other key hitters (Brendan Donovan, Tyler O’Neill) spent time on the injured list or saw significant regression (Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson), as a team, the Cardinals got on base and scored at or near league average levels and were an average or better team in most offensive metrics. However, a lack of timely hitting plagued the team throughout the year, as the team led the MLB in runners left on base.

Still, the team’s biggest weakness was their pitching. The Cardinals finished 25th in ERA, 27th in WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched), 29th in strikeouts, and 29th in opponent batting average. The usually dependable Miles Mikolas finished his worst season as a Cardinal, and replacements for Montgomery and Flaherty struggled mightily through August and September.

And while the team will miss the leadership presence and impressive resume of 41-year-old Adam Wainwright, who announced his retirement prior to the end of the season, they won’t miss his pitching: Waino recorded a 7.40 ERA in one of the worst-recorded seasons for a starter ever.

What to Look Forward To:

The season wasn’t without its bright spots. After a poor start and the puzzling decision by the front office to remove him from catching duties for several weeks of the season, marquee free-agent signer Wilson Contreras finished strong (20 HR, .826 OPS, 3.4 WAR) and was one of the better catchers in the MLB. Fan-favorite outfielder Lars Nootbar posted an impressive .367 On-Base Percentage and infielder Nolan Gorman recorded 27 home runs — with both in their second seasons as full-time players. And despite some defensive struggles, 21-year-old rookie Jordan Walker also showed some real promise at the plate. 

Wainwright’s retirement will also free up over $18 million for the Birds, which will allow for some external upgrades. The team would be wise to dedicate most or all of it towards starting pitching and bullpen arms and should be active on the trade market for pitchers as well. The Cardinals have been linked to impact arms Blake Snell and Aaron Nola, while a reunion with Montgomery remains plausible. 

Ultimately, the Birds should be more competitive next year, but they need to dramatically improve their staff in order to become real contenders once again. Bounce-back seasons from Arenado, Goldschmidt, and Mikolas are hopefully in store, but all three sit on the wrong side of 30 and may not have a whole lot left in their tanks.

What Matters

Most WashU students understand the joy of taking the Metro down to the beautiful Busch Stadium on a spring or fall evening, and those who don’t are truly missing out on one of the best parts of St. Louis. For most students, winning the ball game is just the cherry on top of the gameday experience. But for the folks in the St. Louis area who live, breathe, and die for Cardinals baseball, a repeat of 2023 will be unacceptable. With Marmol and the front office on the hot seat, if next season starts off on the same note as the last, big changes are in store. One last-place finish is manageable, but don’t expect the fans to stomach back-to-back last-place finishes in the cellar of the NL West.

Pitching statistics via ESPN. Individual statistics via Baseball-Reference.