Ryan Hass speaks to audience about relations between the United States and China. (Jamie Nicholson | Student Life)

Ryan Hass, Director of the Brooking Institution’s John L. Thornton China Center, delivered a lecture at Washington University that addressed concerns over a future conflict between the United States and China, Nov. 14. 

Prior to joining the Brookings Institution, Hass served as a Foreign Service Officer for 15 years, working in various countries such as China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Mongolia. He subsequently served as the director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia to the National Security Council (NSC). 

Hass’ lecture tackled three major questions of concern: What exactly are the U.S. and China competing over? How will this competition play out in the coming years? How close are we, actually, to the brink of conflict today?

Hass prefaced his speech by noting that the Nov. 15 meeting between President Biden and President Xi will be the first in over a year. 

“What is unique about this moment is this is the first time that this [topic] has had such political salience,” Hass said.

In his lecture, Hass said that political beliefs in the U.S. have historically differed by party in regards to perspectives on China. He said that 76% of Republicans and only 30% of Democrats have generally believed that China is the largest national security threat to the United States. 

However, Hass said that in recent years, calls for bipartisan awareness of China as a national security threat have increased. According to Hass, half of all Americans now view China as the largest national security threat, overtaking Russia.

Hass said that China’s economic expansion has coincided with many historical setbacks in the United States, and that China has emerged as a challenger to the United States’ once unrivaled hegemonic status. 

“It is a new feeling for officials in the Biden administration, where the U.S. has been either the unipolar power or consumed by the war on terror,” Hass said. “[It’s] a near-perfect storm. China has had a rapid rise at the same time [that] we’re feeling hobbled at home.”

Hass said that the competition between the U.S. and China has created two distinct systems in the global order: liberal democracy and autocracy.

“At the most fundamental level, what the United States and China are competing over is to demonstrate which side — which system — is capable of delivering the best results of improving the lives of its people and solving solutions to the world’s challenges,” he said.

Hass said that in the coming years, the strategic goals of China are going to shift, including focusing on changing the perspective of European countries. 

“Beijing believes [that] if it can nudge Europe to a more neutral position between the U.S. and China, then it will have more autonomy and the U.S. will be able to exert less pressure on Chinese behavior,” Hass said.

Hass said that the goal of the United States is to maintain credibility of our alliances and security pacts in Asia, while China wants to weaken our alliance structure in Asia and is frustrated with our presence in the western pacific region. 

“They believe that if we back off, other countries will become more deferential to China’s demands,” he said.

Over the past two years, China has conducted at least 180 close reconnaissance intercepts of American aircraft operating in international airspace, Hass cited.  

“For this reason, Xi does not have any incentive to reassure Biden that everything will be alright.” Hass said. “He wants us to feel uncomfortable, because they want to push us further away.

Hass said that in the event the U.S. finds itself in a conflict with China, it would be difficult for either side to limit escalation. He added that it would also be difficult for either side to establish superiority over the other, as both sides would be incentivized to find ways to exploit each other’s weaknesses and vulnerabilities.

“[An escalation] would likely cause conflict to spread to space, cyberspace, and potentially to the nuclear domain,” Hass said. “The U.S. could seek to exploit China’s dependence on the Middle East, and China would likely halt rare earth shipments to the U.S., which we use for electric vehicles and clear energy technology.”

However, Hass said that, based on his personal experience working around President Biden and President Xi, he believes the leaders understand that a conflict between the two nations would be detrimental to both U.S. and Chinese national economic ambitions. 

“Whenever tension gets too high, the two leaders step in to release pressure and cool their relationship,” Hass said. “[Both Biden and Xi] have set expectations that there’ll be no conflict, no cold war, and no confrontation.”

While a conflict between the two superpowers is unlikely, Hass concluded his lecture by not completely eliminating this possibility. 

“The risk is not high, but it is not zero — because the U.S. and China have fundamentally different visions and ambitions for the future of Asia,” he said.