Cadenza predicts the Emmys

The Emmys are this Sunday, Sept. 22, and in case you don’t have time to catch up on all the quality nominees, we’ve got rundowns of every major category. Will reigning champion “Homeland” continue its domination of the drama awards? Or will resurgent former favorites like “Breaking Bad” and “Mad Men” make a comeback? And in the comedy awards, will fondness for departing series “30 Rock” lead to a sweep for Tina Fey & Co.? Cadenza has you covered with its Emmy predictions.

Outstanding Drama Series

“Breaking Bad”
“Downton Abbey”
“Game of Thrones”
“Homeland”
“House of Cards”
“Mad Men”

Full disclosure: I do not like “Game of Thrones.” I’ve tried to, but it just doesn’t compare to other quality dramas like “Mad Men.” Meanwhile, I haven’t yet viewed the season of “Breaking Bad” nominated, but if it compares at all to any of the past seasons (and by all critical accounts, it’s even better), it’s probably a runaway favorite. Have you seen those ratings? Any Emmy voter is probably kicking him/herself for not voting for the show. “Homeland” is the reigning champ, but it took a dive in quality during the second season. “Downton Abbey” is barely part of the pop culture conversation anymore, and “House of Cards” should be happy to have broken through, despite it being a Netflix show.

Should win: “Mad Men”

“Mad Men” almost set a record for the most consecutive Emmy wins in this category, but then it didn’t. All signs point to the Emmys having almost completely moved on from this series. But it still deserves the crown, in my opinion, as this season was full of the novel-esque writing that has become “Mad Men”’s trademark, along with some jaw-dropping twists that set the show up for an amazing final season (which, of course, AMC is splitting into two because AMC does nothing but squander any built-up goodwill we had for the network).

Will win: “Breaking Bad”

Critical adoration and trending on Twitter almost every day of the week rarely overlap. With “Breaking Bad,” it does. Bryan Cranston has the part of a lifetime as Walter White, but the ensemble is incredible, too. Ironically, there’s a chance that nobody will be watching the Emmys this Sunday as “Breaking Bad” triumphs, since the penultimate episode of the show airs at the same time.

Should have been here: “Scandal”

The ABC soap opera grew leaps and bounds in quality in almost every department, and the ratings showed it. By embracing the nutty “Defiance” plot and becoming less grounded in reality, it became one of the must-see shows on TV, and certainly one of the few on the major networks. Showrunner Shonda Rhimes was once a regular in this category for “Grey’s Anatomy.” If “Scandal” continues to improve, she will be a regular once again. –Georgie Morvis

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Hugh Bonneville, “Downton Abbey”
Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad”
Jeff Daniels, “The Newsroom”
Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”
Damian Lewis, “Homeland”
Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards”

The fact that “Downtown Abbey” continues to earn the favor of Emmy voters is almost as much of a travesty as the domination of “Modern Family” on the comedy side of the awards. It’s unclear why voters love this overwrought soap-opera-for-adults, but if Bonneville wins, it may signal the end of times. All the more shocking is that Bonneville took a spot that has long been reserved for Michael C. Hall and his consistently terrifying portrayal of a serial killer on “Dexter.” Big names like Jeff Daniels and Kevin Spacey flesh out the category, and Hamm resumes his staple spot on the list, always receiving a nod for his portrayal as Don Draper but never pulling out the win. The real showdown here will be between Damian Lewis and Bryan Cranston. Lewis may have come out on top last year, but it’s likely that voters preferred the novelty of “Homeland” last year and wanted to provide some drama by breaking Cranston’s streak. Look for Cranston to return to his rightful spot on stage this year.

Should win: Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad”

It’s pretty self-explanatory—Cranston’s performance as Walter White will go down as one of the finest in television history, and his chilling descent further into his role as Heisenberg in the first half of the fifth season only compounds that notion. His work with Aaron Paul (as Jesse Pinkman) and Jonathan Banks (as Mike Ehrmantraut) was stellar and sinister as viewers watched the last vestiges of Walter’s humanity rot away under the exterior layers of his facade. Part of the reason that his continued manipulation of Jesse is so believable is Cranston’s performance: audiences feel themselves pulled into its magnetism, wanting to believe just as much as Jesse does that something compassionate lurks underneath Heisenberg’s hat. Cranston is worthy of leading an acting master class, especially considering the Emmy nominations he was receiving before “Breaking Bad” were in the comedy category for “Malcolm in the Middle.” Truly, no one does it better.

Will win: Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad”

The shock and outrage that followed Lewis’ win over Cranston last year is probably enough of an indication that it won’t happen again. Additionally, “Homeland” has seen a noticeable fall in quality in its second season as writers pushed too hard for dramatic twists and an unbelievable love story. Though Lewis continues to play Marine Sergeant Nicholas Brody with every necessary complexity and a compelling darkness, it would take a whole lot more than that to beat Cranston.

Should have been here: Michael C. Hall, “Dexter”

Most nomination predictions had Hall as a presumed lock for this category. Like Hamm, he’s always there, a faithful extra to the proceedings. His snub this year is probably due more to his show falling severely out of favor with critics. In an exemplary case of a show being stretched too thin, the past seasons have been shaky at best. Admittedly, though the show’s decline in quality has been steep, its fall has been due to writing and not acting: Hall has remained superbly committed to his character. It will be interesting to see if he gets one last nomination next year for “Dexter”’s final season, which has been even more of a travesty than the last. –Kayla Hollenbaugh

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Connie Britton, “Nashville”
Claire Danes, “Homeland”
Michelle Dockery, “Downton Abbey”
Vera Farmiga, “Bates Motel”
Elisabeth Moss, “Mad Men”
Kerry Washington, “Scandal”
Robin Wright, “House of Cards”

And here we are, in another year of the best drama actress category being crowded with deserving nominees. Despite her talent and expert performance in “Nashville,” Connie Britton’s nomination was probably just a make-up nomination for all the years she wasn’t nominated for “Friday Night Lights.” Equally surprising was Dockery and Farmiga both making it into this crowded category. And though Elisabeth Moss has deserved a win in the past, the Emmy voters simply refuse to recognize “Mad Men” in the acting categories, and she has a better chance for her other nomination in the best miniseries actress category for “Top of the Lake.” This contest is probably a three-way competition between Wright, Washington and Danes, who are probably the most famous nominees as well.

Should win: Kerry Washington, “Scandal”

I had a tough time deciding between Washington and Wright, since Wright’s ice queen on “House of Cards” was one of my favorite characters, but nothing compares to the awesomeness that is Washington’s Olivia Pope. She is simultaneously terrifying and inspiring. And Washington is perfect at delivering Shonda Rhimes’ signature rapid-fire monologues, all while keeping the show grounded. The win would be historic as well, as Washington is the first African-American actress to be nominated in this category in almost two decades, as well as the first to lead a network drama since 1974. Plus, “Scandal” is one of the most talked-about shows nominated for awards. Emmy voters love to make history while being part of the zeitgeist, and in a perfect world, Washington would be victorious.

Will win: Claire Danes, “Homeland”

I’ve only seen the first season of “Homeland,” and the most impressive thing about it was definitely Danes’ performance. Unless Danes herself had a Carrie Mathison meltdown and forgot how to act, the defending champion should repeat. Of course, there’s always the chance that Emmy voters saw the “Saturday Night Live” skit parodying “Homeland” and thought that Anne Hathaway did such a good job imitating Danes that perhaps the performance was not as masterful as they previously thought. But that’s a scenario as unlikely as an unstable CIA operative falling in love with a veteran-turned-terrorist. Wait a second…

Should have been here: Tatiana Maslany, “Orphan Black”

If you’ve never heard of “Orphan Black,” immediately put down this newspaper or close this link, find the entire series online (preferably legally) and marathon it. The BBC America show about a woman who discovers she is a clone is stunning, but would be cheesy or campy or just plain stupid without the central performance of Maslany as the various clones. She’s aces at almost every clone, and then she gets to play a clone imitating another one of the clones, and she’s even better at that. If critical buzz continues to build for “Orphan Black,” the Emmys will eventually come calling. –Georgie Morvis

Outstanding Comedy Series

“30 Rock”
“The Big Bang Theory”
“Girls”
“Louie”
“Modern Family”
“Veep”

Could this year’s Outstanding Comedy Series category be any less exciting? Five of the six nominees—namely “30 Rock,” “The Big Bang Theory,” “Girls,” “Modern Family” and “Veep”—were also nominated last year. The only change this year is that FX’s “Louie” was nominated for the first time, taking the spot previously occupied by HBO’s “Curb Your Enthusiasm.” Some may argue that there were some major snubs in this category—like NBC’s “Parks and Recreation,” the final season of “The Office” and Netflix’s reboot of “Arrested Development”—but none of the nominees are undeserving. After all, “30 Rock” and “Modern Family” have already won the category three times each, and the other four series have taken home Emmys in other major categories. There’s still a clear frontrunner, but an upset isn’t out of the question.

Should Win: “Louie”

It’s tempting to say that the final season of “30 Rock” should win just for nostalgia’s sake, but Louis C.K.’s brilliant brand of offbeat humor has totally earned him that golden statuette.

Will Win: “Modern Family”

Again, it’s won this category every year that it’s been eligible. It’s also a hilarious, heartwarming family comedy that everyone can get behind.

Should Have Been Here: “Parks and Recreation”

Somehow, “Parks and Recreation” has never won a single Emmy despite the fact that it’s a consistently hilarious show with a fantastic cast and a positive message. The fact that it’s only been nominated in this category once (in 2011) blows my mind. –Katharine Jaruzelski

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock”
Jason Bateman, “Arrested Development”
Matt LeBlanc, “Episodes”
Louis C.K., “Louie”
Don Cheadle, “House of Lies”
Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory”

Do these names seem familiar? They should, seeing as how every nominee in this category has been nominated for this exact category from these exact roles in the past, with four (Baldwin, Cheadle, C.K. and Parsons) returning from last year. We are used to seeing these names as well as the characters, and we welcome back Bateman with open arms. The last time he was nominated was 2005, during the first run of “Arrested Development.” This year also sadly marks the last time we will see Baldwin nominated for his portrayal of Jack Donaghy, as “30 Rock” finished up this past year. With Jon Cryer not nominated this year, the floor is open. Fun fact: every nominee is from a show that’s on a different network. With that range, this category is always interesting.

Should win: Louis C.K., “Louie”

Everyone who watches “Louie,” raves about it. Louis’ portrayal of a version of himself is uncomfortable and tortured but equally hilarious. He is consistently funny, and with “Louie” finally getting an Emmy nomination for the Outstanding Comedy Series category, Louis himself should also grab the title.

Will win: Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock”

Baldwin has been nominated for his performance in every single season of “30 Rock” but hasn’t won since 2009. We will all miss Jack’s backhanded comments toward Liz Lemon and constant interference with “TGS with Tracy Jordan,” but we will mostly miss the Liz-Jack friendship. With a sentimental nod to “30 Rock,” I think Baldwin will win for his consistent and wonderful portrayal of Jack.

Should have been here: Neil Flynn, “The Middle”

Coming up with who should be here was a little difficult as I realized that a lot of my favorite snubbed actors are part of ensembles—Chris Messina, Max Greenfield, et cetera—but then I remembered Neil Flynn, whose stability and straightforwardness as Mike Heck on “The Middle” have allowed him to have some really hilarious conversations and interactions over the course of the past four seasons. While “The Middle” is highly underrated, I wish Flynn would get more recognition. –Elena Wandzilak

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Laura Dern, “Enlightened”
Lena Dunham, “Girls”
Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie”
Tina Fey, “30 Rock”
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep”
Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation”

If you think this category is bloated with talent this year, consider last year, when five of these nominees plus Melissa McCarthy and Zooey Deschanel were all nominated. This year, Dern made it in for her overlooked (and already canceled) show “Enlightened,” while Deschanel and McCarthy missed out. This category seems likely to end up as a slugfest between four women: Dunham, Fey, Louis-Dreyfus and Poehler. Poehler and Fey, once “SNL”’s “Weekend Update” co-anchors, were Golden Globes co-hosts, and each has her own narrative: Fey’s show is ending, and Poehler has never won an award. Dunham, meanwhile, is a media “It girl,” although her show was not as universally acclaimed in its second season. However, Louis-Dreyfus looks like the favorite at this point: the Emmys love her as she has accrued 16 nominations for her work in comedies.

Should win: Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation”

National treasure Amy Poehler has never won a national award she has been nominated for. Sure, we picked her character, Leslie Knope, as our pick for president in the 2012 election, but alas, she’s still on NBC. But this is a travesty. The character that Poehler has created on “Parks and Recreation” is complex, memorable and, most of all, hilarious. For her to continue to go unrewarded for her immense talents would be upsetting, but I’m prepared for another year of waiting for her to be recognized.

Will win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep”

“Veep” is one of the funniest shows on television right now, and Louis-Dreyfus is a comedic legend, having been on “Seinfeld” and “SNL.” Heck, the Emmy voters even gave her one for “The New Adventures of Old Christine.” She won for this show last year, and her submission episode, “Running,” was easily the best work she’s done on the series. She’s a runaway favorite, if you’ll excuse the pun.

Should have been here: Mindy Kaling, “The Mindy Project”

While it didn’t exactly live up to my expectations, there’s no denying that “The Mindy Project” was a comedy that came from a strong voice—and Kaling provided her show with that voice both behind and in front of the camera. Sure, it seemed at times like a fantasy revolving door of attractive comedic actors, but Kaling had the charisma and charm to make us believe in every potential relationship, projecting both her character’s intelligence and insecurities (largely derived from being single). If the show becomes less broad and her performance continues to improve, perhaps the Emmys will reward her accordingly. –Georgie Morvis

The Emmys are on Sunday, Sept. 22, on CBS at 7 p.m. Follow along as @studlifecadenza live-tweets all the action!

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