Spring training is officially underway and the greatest time of the year is almost upon us: baseball season. Pitchers and catchers have already checked in to camp, and in just over a month the first pitch will be thrown, most likely by Josh Beckett, in Japan.
The off-season was certainly a strange one. With the weakest free-agent market in recent memory (aside of course, from that A-Rod guy), teams looked to trades to fill roster holes, and furthered the trend of teams attempting to build success from the minor leagues up. Here is a look at the impact trades of the winter and how they will affect the season.
Tigers trade Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller and four other low impact prospects to the Marlins for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis
Denied a World Series ring by the Cardinals two seasons ago, this trade shows just how much Detroit wants a World Series title. In Miguel Cabrera the Tigers gained one of the elite power threats in the game. Since his debut he has averaged over 30 homeruns and 115 RBI’s, despite no protection in the meager Marlins lineup. By placing him in the middle of a lineup consisting of Curtis Granderson, Placido Polanco, Magglio Ordonez, Gary Sheffield, Ivan Rodriguez, Carlos Guillen and the newly acquired Edgar Renteria, Detroit has arguably the best offense in baseball, even if Granderson, Polanco and Ordonez do not manage to post the same gaudy numbers they did last year.
The big question mark is Dontrelle Willis. After posting a 2.63 ERA in 236.1 innings on his way to a 22-10 record in 2005, Willis had two seasons he would rather forget, combining for a 22-27 record. The good news is that Willis’ strikeout rate has remained the same. The bad news is that his walk and homerun rates jumped significantly. Unless he re-learns how to get right-handers out, moving out of the NL (a.k.a. Quadruple-A) and into the AL could cause him to become a barely viable 4-5 starter. He still has ace potential, but don’t expect it to show this season.
The Marlins also came out ahead in this trade. They accomplished their goal of fielding a team with a combined payroll of under $15 million, and will once again reap huge profits from revenue sharing whether they have a single fan show up to a game or not, furthering the notion that baseball needs to enforce a minimum team salary. As for the players they obtained, ignore Cameron Maybin’s 2007 numbers with the Tigers. He is one of the top outfield prospects in the game and projects to be a future all-star, especially if he can cut down on strikeouts. Andrew Miller has the potential to be a solid starter, but it is unlikely he will ever become a true ace.
Twins trade Johann Santana to the Mets for. who exactly?
The Santana rumors never stopped all off-season, and the final result can only be described in one word: disappointing. Despite having the wealthiest owner in baseball and a new stadium in the works, the Twins’ management offered Santana only a fraction of his worth, ensuring he would not be in Minnesota after the 2008 season. Then, after waiting to pull the trigger on trades for prospect packages like Jacoby Elsbury, Clay Buchholz (but not the two together) and Justin Masterson with the Red Sox, or Ian Kennedy, Phil Hughes (it remains hazy whether they would have been able to get them both), and Melky Cabrera from the Yankees, the options just fell away for the new Minnesota front office.
To make things worse, instead of being patient and waiting out the first half of the season and moving Santana before the trade deadline when he could potentially be worth even more, they panicked about the no-trade clause in his contract and only received an average group of prospects in return.
For arguably the greatest pitcher on earth the Twins received outfielder Carlos Gomez, and righties Deolis Guerra, Philip Humber, and Kevin Mulvey. Of the group, Gomez and Guerra have the largest upside, though both are raw and unproven and it is tough to reasonably say that either will become a true impact player.
Meanwhile, Santana redefines the look of the NL East. He provides the Mets with exactly what they were missing during their epic 2007 collapse: a true ace. Remember, it took the Phillies a great finish to catch the Mets, but for the first five months the Mets were the team to beat. Adding Santana, and with Pedro Martinez healing up, the Mets have a pitching staff far better than their new rivals. Sorry Philadelphia fans, even with that offense you won’t be beating the Mets with a rotation consisting of Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Kyle Kendrick and two guys that would not make an AL roster.
Athletics trade Dan Haren to the Diamondbacks for 6 prospects
In an attempt to prove 2007 was not just a fluke, the Diamondbacks nearly emptied their farm system for three affordable years of Dan Haren. For the Diamondbacks, now that many of the young players that propelled them to the playoffs last year have more experience and a stronger pitching staff, especially if old-man Randy Johnson stays healthy, this year may not be a fluke. A 1-2-3 punch of Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, and Randy Johnson has the potential to be just plain scary. Do not look for Dan Haren to repeat last year’s All-Star performance though. After the All-Star break he posted an ERA above 4.00, though that was largely caused by an abnormally high BABIP (batting average for balls in play), which suggests some bad luck. Despite the move to a weaker league, expect his stats to fall somewhere between his 2006 and 2007 numbers, still making him fantastic for a #2 starter.
As for Oakland, after years of competing on a modest budget it is now rebuilding time. Of all the pitchers being shopped this off-season, Haren arguably held the most value, as his contract lasts three more years at a very affordable price, so in return the A’s received 6 prospects. Most notable of them is outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, who projects to be a solid outfielder with power and speed.
Orioles trade Eric Bedard to the Mariners for Adam Jones and 4 others
It’s about time the Orioles, one of the worst run organizations in baseball, realized they can not compete financially with the Yankees and Red Sox, and that the only way to create a winning ball club in that division would be to rebuild from within. The gem of the group, outfielder Adam Jones, Seattle’s Minor League Player of the Year, hit .314 with 25 home runs and 84 RBIs for Triple-A last season and should be ready for a starting roll come April.
Meanwhile, in acquiring Bedard the Mariners have shown that they have incorrectly evaluated their team. When a team empties their farm system for one of the 5 most dominant lefties in the game, they should without a doubt be competitive. So while adding Bedard will take some pressure off of young Felix “The King” Hernandez, they still have no depth in the rotation, and a lineup featuring slugger Richie Sexson’s .205 BA in 2007 will not be able to hold its own, even in the weakest AL division.