Scott BresslerWashington University Earth and Planetary Sciences Lecturer Robert Buchwaldt is bringing his expertise in petrology and geochronology to the Ecuadorian Volcanic Hazard Assessment Group.
The Assessment Group, a multi-national body of geological scientists, formed a few years ago to bring state-of-the-art volcanic activity charting systems and volcanic safety education to the third world nation.
“The people of Ecuador need to understand that they are living in a dangerous environment,” said Buchwaldt. “They need to be prepared for volcanic eruptions.”
Roughly the size of Missouri, Ecuador has well over 250 volcanoes and around 10 percent of them are classified as ‘highly active.’ A highly active volcano can erupt daily and is capable of being as destructive as or even more destructive than the 1980 eruption of Mt. St. Helens.
Ecuador is located on a subduction zone where the oceanic Nazca Plate is sliding under the South American Plate. As the Nazca plate subducts, it melts due to the extreme temperatures of the Earth. This leads to the formation of magma, which works its way upwards, eventually reaching the surface in the form of volcanic activity.
With nearly 14 million residents continually expanding out of already packed population areas, more and more Ecuadorians are living in the shadow of volcanoes. Most of these volcanoes, Buchwaldt noted, are already located “within high population areas.”
In Ecuador, due to numerous economic and resource shortages, there are more pressing concerns on the minds of government officials and citizens than volcanic safety.
“Ecuador is a third world country: more people are concerned with getting the bananas than worrying about a lava flow,” said Buchwaldt. “An eruption would be a catastrophe on top of an already-present economic disaster.”
Buchwaldt deals with Geospatial Information Systems (GIS)-a tool using 3-D layers of a map to model specific geographic features.
GIS allows scientists to reassess a specific volcanic system and find the recurrence interval (the probability a specific event will be exceeded in a given amount of time) and put that in relation with population.
“This allows us to generate a map of specific hazard zones-to analyze what the Earth is telling us-for use in future development,” said Buchwaldt.
This technology, similar to the technology utilized by MapQuest, allows Buchwaldt to map out pathways where lava flows occur so that these areas can be avoided in the construction of new industries, businesses and homes.
In the early 1990s, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) sent geologists to analyze Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. Geologists told the Filipino government that a major eruption was imminent and stressed the necessity of immediate evacuation.
“The local politicians disagreed with the USGS scientists and essentially left the people in place: it was devastating,” recalled Buchwaldt. “You have to know the volcanic system to make a prognosis.”
When it comes to Ecuador, Buchwaldt and the Assessment Group are working to prevent such a scenario.
“It will be devastating for Ecuador if a serious eruption occurs without these measurement systems in place,” he said.
Last spring break, Buchwaldt led an Earth and Planetary Sciences field trip of 30 undergraduate and graduate students to see Ecuador first-hand, a trip which he hope to repeat in the future.
“It was a great experience for the students to stand on an active volcano and feel the ground shaking beneath their feet,” said Buchwaldt.