Dan DaranciangThe 78th Annual Academy Awards are this Sunday, and we here at Cadenza would like to share our thoughts and feelings on who we think will win and who we think should win, noting the frequent disparity between the two.
Best Picture
In the Running: “Brokeback Mountain,” “The Constant Gardener,” “Memoirs of a Geisha,” “Munich,” “Pride & Prejudice”
What will win: “Brokeback Mountain”
Hollywood loves it, it stirred up controversy and it was a bittersweet love story about cowboys. I don’t see how it could lose.
What should win: “Brokeback Mountain”
Ang Lee, still stunned after “Hulk” got completely shut out by Oscar, should pick one up for director as well.
Best Actor
In the Running: Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Terrence Howard, Heath Ledger, Joaquin Phoenix, David Strathairn
Who will win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman
The Academy loves when an actor affects his voice, and Hoffman is overdue for recognition.
Who should win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman
In the battle for “best character to imitate,” Hoffman’s raspy high-pitched Southern accent wins out over Ledger’s inaudible drawl.
Best Supporting Actor
In the Running: George Clooney, Matt Dillon, Paul Giamatti, Jake Gyllenhaal, William Hurt
Who will win: William Hurt
The Academy loves giving out awards to supporting actors who steal movies with only a brief performance (see Judi Dench).
Who should win: Paul Giamatti
Giamatti will pick up the special “Jim Carrey” award for most non-nominations by a deserving actor.
Best Actress
In the Running: Judi Dench, Felicity Huffman, Keira Knightley, Charlize Theron, Reese Witherspoon
Who will win: Reese Witherspoon
Hollywood loves this girl, and she was certainly the best thing in “Walk the Line.”
Who should win: Keira Knightley
This one is a pretty sure bet for Witherspoon, but more people should check out “Pride & Prejudice”…I can’t believe I just said that, either.
Best Supporting Actress
In the Running: Amy Adams, Catherine Keener, Frances McDormand, Rachel Weisz, Michelle Williams
Who will win: Catherine Keener
She has been overdue for an Oscar, and Hollywood liked “The 40-Year-Old Virgin” more than you would think.
Who should: Rachel Weisz
Whether it’s AIDS policies in Africa or desiccated, plague-ridden mummies, Weisz has shown time and time again that she can do a wonderful job and look beautiful in the process.