Margaret BauerAs the Academy Awards show barrels full-steam-ahead this Sunday, two things are becoming clear: “Million Dollar Baby” has the momentum, and Chris Rock is likely to be the most (and possibly only) real entertainment on hand. Cadenza, in what’s become a yearly tradition, offers up some observations on the major categories-who should win, who will win and who should have at least been nominated to begin with.
Best Supporting Actor
Child actors are usually creepy. That out of the way, Freddie Highmore, who plays Peter Davies in “Finding Neverland,” is wonderfully talented. He portrays a child’s loss with such powerful emotion and deep resonance that it’s hard to walk away from “Finding Neverland”‘s last scene without bawling. – Susannah Cahalan
Welcome to the world of Oscar hoopla, where lead actors in good movies (Jamie Foxx in “Collateral”) get nominated for supporting categories so as not to split their vote in the big race. Foxx is riveting in “Collateral”-damn near as good as he is in “Ray”-but I’d rather see the thing go to an actual supporting performer, like, say, Thomas Haden Church. Morgan Freeman’ll win, though. – Tyler Weaver
Freeman, and it’s about time. Foxx only qualifies as a dark horse in this category. – Ed Fruchter
Best Supporting Actress
Natalie Portman put in two great performances this last year, and while she should be up for the award because of “Garden State” and not “Closer,” there is no doubt in my mind that she more than deserves to win the Oscar. – Adam Summerville
Virginia Madsen really is that good in “Sideways.” – TW
People are going batty this year for biographical roles, so hand it over to Cate Blanchett as Katherine Hepburn in “The Aviator.” I tend to agree that she was wonderful. I still maintain that she looked like Annie Lennox being channeled through Ronald McDonald, though. – Matt Simonton
Best Actor
Again, Jim Carrey (“Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind”) is deemed inferior by the Academy because of his comedic background. His restrained performance is surprisingly natural and immensely moving. – SC
Notice that only one of this year’s actors played an original screen role (Clint Eastwood), while the others adapted historical personas. This year the Oscar goes to Jamie Foxx (“Ray”), barely beating out Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Aviator”)-because blind, heroin-addicted songwriters are more interesting than obsessive-compulsive movie producers in the great chain of Hollywood being. – MS
Clint Eastwood, for “Million Dollar Baby.” Foxx isn’t a contender in my eyes. I think he’s a dilettante. -EF
Best Actress
Not many actresses can believably portray a pregnant heroin mule. (Just imagine the lovely Natalie Portman swallowing a baggy of smack.) But “Maria Full of Grace”‘s Catalina Sandino Moreno is a convincing lead without detachment and sentimentality. Her brilliant performance makes an already depressing film that much more devastating. -SC
Too bad Julie Delpy didn’t get a nom for “Before Sunset.” Hilary Swank will win, because “Million Dollar Baby” is going to sweep. – TW
I’d like to see either Moreno or Kate Winslet (for “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind”), not just because both did a great job but because both come from movies that are greatly underrepresented. – AS
Best Director
“Sideways.” Give Alexander Payne his due. (Although he gets points off for helping write “Jurassic Park III.”) – MS
See Matt’s answer. – TW
I cannot reiterate how much Eastwood needs to win. – EF
Pedro Almod¢var, with “Bad Education,” crafted the brilliantly twisted noir of a transvestite murderer. And he didn’t even get a nomination. – SC
Best Picture
Why is “Ray” nominated here? Anyway. “The Aviator” is very good. “Million Dollar Baby” is great (and going to win). “Sideways,” though, is the year’s best movie: lilting, wonderful and absolutely hilarious. – TW
Martin Scorsese has been neglected time and time again despite being one of Hollywood’s greatest, most prolific directors. With “The Aviator” he has produced a movie that shows the true power of a biographic picture that reveals aspects of a person’s life previously unknown or ignored. – AS
“The Aviator.” Good to know that Scorsese doesn’t just dress up steaming piles of crap with epic grandeur (see “Gangs of New York”). A great time at the movies-expertly shot and paced, too. – MS
“Finding Neverland” is beautifully filmed, a perfectly acted examination of the creation of “Peter Pan.” Not only visually stunning, it also deals with life-affirming themes that make it the only instant classic nominated this year. – SC