
Bernell Dorrough
That special time of year has come again. It’s a time when celebrities don their finest (or ugliest) garb and stuffy film critics give an indignant “harumph” when their favorite flicks don’t make the cut. That’s right, it’s the 76th Annual Academy Awards, and we here at Cadenza have assembled a crack team of analysts to tell you where to place your bets. It has shaped up to be an exciting Sunday night, as the categories include a wide variety of genres, and lesser known films like “Lost in Translation” and “House of Sand and Fog” have stealthily slipped into the nominee pool. Of course, there are all the requisite blockbusters as well, including “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (11 nominations) and “Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World” (10 nominations). Watch for a cat fight between Charlize Theron and Naomi Watts, and be sure to keep your eye on the Best Supporting roles for the most even competition and the biggest indicators of future stardom. Now, let’s see what our panel of experts has to say. Guys?
Best Supporting Actress
Who will win:
Travis: Renee Zellweger, “Cold Mountain.” The movie itself was resoundingly ignored, but what good things were said about it had to do with her feisty comic performance. This crusty type of comedic role is best suited for the Supporting role Oscar, and she’ll win also because of leftover good will from her performance in Chicago.
Tyler: This is always the random clusterf**k unpredictable category, so I’m gonna go with my gut and say Clarkson. They love her and she’s never won.
Who should win:
Mike: Another category where the winner is a toss up, I would have to go with Shoreh Aghdashloo in “House of Sand and Fog.” Although there was not much publicity for her or the movie, she could be a surprise this year.
Matt: Call it in the air, Clarkson or Hunter. Clarkson, as the pot-smoking, cancer-ridden, bitter mom was the best thing about the otherwise weak “Pieces of April,” but Hunter was awesome, too, despite an unnecessary nude scene.
Who got snubbed:
Matt: How about Nikki Reed, who played the conniving adolescent Evie alongside Hunter in “thirteen”? She could’ve been a new Tatum O’Neil, except hotter, in a creepy, ashamed-of-myself way.
Robbie: Sheri Moon in “House of 1000 Corpses” was probably the foxiest thing to happen to a horror film since Helen Chandler got a juicy hicky from Bela Legosi in the original “Dracula.”
Best Actress
Who will win:
Robbie: Theron is the(r)on(e)
Mike: The Academy will grant Theron the award, most likely due to the overwhelming critical support that she has received.
Who should win:
Matt: Charlize again, and NOT because of the makeup. She was Aileen Wuornos for two hours, and I hung on her every move.
Travis: I’d be happy with Theron, though I’d prefer Naomi Watts, because she made herself seem ugly without the benefit of tons of makeup. The girl from “Whale Rider” was awesome but the movie wasn’t.
Who got snubbed:
Tyler: Although there wasn’t exactly much character depth involved, Uma Thurman-wait, what am I talking about? Where the hell is Scarlett Johansson?
Best Supporting Actor
Who will win:
Travis: Tim Robbins. The only thing I could see stopping Academy voters from casting their ballot in his favor is the fear that he might give a Michael Moore-esque political acceptance speech.
Tyler: Robbins. Give Baldwin an outside shot, but this will be one of the consolation prizes “Mystic” gets when “Return of the King” takes both the big boys.
Who should win:
Robbie: “God knows when a single hair moves on your head,” Benicio del Toro says multiple times in “21 Grams.” I know when a single actor deserves an award.
Matt: Ex-con-turned-Jesus-freak roles are a sure way to get yourself the gold, but I think Tim Robbins had a serious “Sound and the Fury” Benjy thing going on in “Mystic River.”
Who got snubbed:
Robbie: Billy Crudup continues to go under the radar screen as one of America’s best young actors. His role in “Big Fish” quietly brought many a tear to many a viewer’s eye.
Mike: This list is certainly complete as it stands.
Best Actor
Who will win:
Mike: Although unfortunate, Bill Murray will most likely take the Oscar. His performance was respectable, but not the best of the year. Due to Penn’s outspoken political views and his reluctance to “play the game” in Hollywood (star on late night talk shows, etc.), I’m sure the Academy will avoid giving it to him.
Matt: “Aloha, Mr. Oscar.” Sean Penn nabs this one, because Johnny Depp is a joke in this category and Bill Murray is too much of a crap shoot.
Who should win:
Travis: Bill Murray. “Lost in Translation.” Had Penn been nominated for “21 Grams,” I would have thought he should have won, but Bill Murray’s actor/fish out of water role in the year’s strangest romance deserves recognition. Every look on his sad-sack face was comic and tragic gold.
Who got snubbed:
Travis: The movie left something to be desired, but Paul Giamatti’s performance in “American Splendour” was an amazingly low-key portrait, a perfect match for the real-life Harvey Pekar’s personality.
Robbie: Sean Penn. Did anyone else feel uncomfortable in their own skin watching Sean Penn gasp for air throughout half of “21 Grams”? It’s not ridiculous to say that even his second best acting role of the year he was better than Jude Law.
Best Director
Who will win:
Mike: I have a feeling the Academy is ready to give Jackson his due this year, and he will most likely win this one. I can see them considering Sofia Coppola, and if she does win, she better go and thank her father, Francis Ford Coppola, without whom her nomination would probably not be possible.
Who should win:
Matt: It would be so easy to say “Lost in Translation” and be done with it, but on second thought, “Mystic River” was solid as Clint Eastwood’s jaw line. A great, subtle display of directing that never stole time from the amazing performances on screen.
Travis: Sofia Coppola, “Lost in Translation.” This was not only one of the funniest movies of the year but one of the most lyrical and beautiful in its imagery. Her balance of pretension and humor makes this project worth a reward.
Who got snubbed:
Tyler: Danny Boyle, for the abject fear and striking, strange beauty of “28 Days Later.”
Robbie: The nominees all appear worthy. Only Alejandro Gonzlez Irritu for his direction of the staggeringly bleak “21 Grams” seems missing.
Best Picture
Who will win:
Matt: The hobbits take this one, if only so the Academy can reward Jackson for the entire trilogy, with “The Return of the King” being the best of the bunch.
Mike: Expect the makers of “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” to come up to the stand at the end of the night. Overall, the film is quite deserving and concludes the trilogy in an impressive fashion.
Who should win:
Robbie: The Oscar for best picture should be about drama, and there was no movie as intensely gripping from start to finish as “Mystic River.” Sean Penn’s acting alone makes this film the hands-down best of the bunch.
Tyler: “Lost In Translation.” Period.
Who got snubbed:
Travis: “Cuckoo.” A small, Russian/Finnish co-production about deserting soldiers in the Finnish Lapp country in World War II, this was the funniest, bawdiest and most powerfully spiritual film of the year. Too bad nobody saw it.
Tyler: “Lost In Translation” will be, award-wise. Nominationally, it’s a small shame “Love Actually” didn’t grab the annual sentimental-flick nod that “Seabiscuit” garnered this year. Same for “Bend It Like Beckham.” Or “School of Rock.” Really. And did everyone forget “Kill Bill, Vol. 1?”
Final Cadenza Predictions
Best Picture: “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King”
Best Actor: Sean Penn, “Mystic River”
Best Actress: Charlize Theron, “Monster”
Best Supporting Actor: Tim Robbins, “Mystic River”
Best Supporting Actress: Renee Zellweger, “Cold Mountain”
Best Director: Peter Jackson, “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King”