Oscars preview

At first glance, the winners for this year’s Oscars seem to be completely set in stone. That being said, there is room for debate. Cadenza’s staff discusses who should win, and occasionally, who will win the 83rd Annual Academy Awards.

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale in “The Fighter” (Paramount)
John Hawkes in “Winter’s Bone” (Roadside Attractions)
Jeremy Renner in “The Town” (Warner Bros.)
Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right” (Focus Features)
Geoffrey Rush in “The King’s Speech” (The Weinstein Company)
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale in “The Fighter” (Paramount)
John Hawkes in “Winter’s Bone” (Roadside Attractions)
Jeremy Renner in “The Town” (Warner Bros.)
Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right” (Focus Features)
Geoffrey Rush in “The King’s Speech” (The Weinstein Company)

Will Win:
Alieza Schvimer: If you saw the final credits of “The Fighter,” they show the real Dicky Eklund, who Christian Bale portrays. Not only did Christian slim down considerably for the role, but he perfected Eklund’s mannerisms and delivered a stunning performance that The Academy will undoubtedly acknowledge.
Alex Terrono: Add that to the fact that Bale has been winning most of the precursors, and the Oscar is essentially his.
Should Win:
AS: Christian Bale should win for the same reasons mentioned above.
AT: While Bale was the highlight of an otherwise dull movie, Geoffrey Rush was much more engaging in “The King’s Speech.” That said, Rush wasn’t much different than other characters he plays, while Bale threw himself completely into the role. He definitely deserves some recognition for that.

Best Picture Nominees
“Black Swan” (Fox Searchlight)
“The Fighter” (Paramount)
“Inception” (Warner Bros.)
“The Kids Are All Right” (Focus Features)
“The King’s Speech” (The Weinstein Company)
“127 Hours” (Fox Searchlight)
“The Social Network” (Sony Pictures)
“Toy Story 3” (Walt Disney)
“True Grit” (Paramount)
“Winter’s Bone” (Roadside Attractions)

Will Win:

Georgie Morvis: “The King’s Speech” will win because it has an insane amount of momentum, and it’s such an Oscar movie.
AT: True, it is an Oscar movie, but I think that the momentum that “The Social Network” has built up will outpace that of “The King’s Speech.” Recently, the Oscars have been getting slightly more edgy, with “The Hurt Locker” and “Slumdog Millionaire.”
Should Win:
GM: “Toy Story 3” should win because it has the best fusion of drama and comedy out there and handles emotion more poignantly than any picture nominated.
AT: “Toy Story 3” was good, but it wasn’t “movie of the year” amazing.
Nora Long: I think “The Kids Are All Right” should win. There’s almost less chance for this one than for “Toy Story,” because it’s “controversial,” but it did a great job of portraying normal family issues right alongside the special challenges of an unconventional family. I really cared about these characters, and it covered new ground in a way “The King’s Speech” didn’t.
AT: “Kids” was also really good, but I think that “Black Swan” would be a better choice for Best Picture, because, well, it was the best (of those nominated). It was enthralling, exciting, beautifully made and well-acted.

Best Actor
Javier Bardem in “Biutiful” (Roadside Attractions)
Jeff Bridges in “True Grit” (Paramount)
Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network” (Sony Pictures Releasing)
Colin Firth in “The King’s Speech” (The Weinstein Company)
James Franco in “127 Hours” (Fox Searchlight)

Will Win:
AS: There is no doubt that Colin Firth will win. “The King’s Speech” is the quintessential Oscar movie, and Colin Firth is the king. King George is exactly how The Academy loves its leading men to be.
AT: I don’t think anyone can disagree with that.
Should Win:
AS: Jesse Eisenberg should win. As good of a performance as Colin gave, nothing beats my man Jesse. He took over the role of a self-involved computer programmer, while still making the audience somewhat empathize with Mark Zuckerberg. Plus, did you see him on “SNL”? Flawless.
NL: The reason why “The King’s Speech” is going to win Best Picture is Colin Firth. Who else could give that rich and varied a performance with a character who often just can’t talk?
AT: While I do love Colin, I think that Jesse should win more because Zuckerberg was a big change of character for him, and he performed phenomenally. At this point, it’s hard to tell the difference between Eisenberg and Zuckerberg.
GM: Jeff Bridges should win for his amazing portrayal of a drunk marshal in “True Grit.” But he won last year, when Colin Firth should have won for “A Single Man.” So I guess that means that Colin Firth should win this year. Eisenberg ain’t got nothing on Mr. Darcy.

Best Director

Darren Aronofsky for “Black Swan” (Fox Searchlight)
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen for “True Grit” (Paramount)
David Fincher for “The Social Network” (Sony Pictures Releasing)
Tom Hooper for “The King’s Speech” (The Weinstein Company)
David O. Russell for “The Fighter” (Paramount)

Will Win:
AS: Tom Hooper will win for “The King’s Speech.” It’s just bound to sweep the Oscars, without question.
GM: No, David Fincher will most likely win for “The Social Network.” BAFTA gave this award to him, which I think would point toward a Picture/Director split. Also, it’s a better directing job. Anyone could have directed “The King’s Speech.” Fincher brought a clear vision to an already vibrant script by Sorkin, and everyone in the ensemble is perfect (especially the smaller, almost cameo roles).
AT: I think the Picture/Director split will go the other way, with Hooper winning director.
Should Win:
AS: Darren Aronofsky for “Black Swan.” The development between scenes and characters throughout the entire movie are impeccable. The story is phenomenally jarring and perplexing, and Aronofsky has done a great job of translating it onto the big screen.
AT: Agreed. “Black Swan” is beautiful, much of which can be credited to Aronofsky’s directing. I’m glad he’s finally getting some recognition for his work.

Best Actress
Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right” (Focus Features)
Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole” (Lionsgate)
Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter’s Bone” (Roadside Attractions)
Natalie Portman in “Black Swan” (Fox Searchlight)
Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine” (The Weinstein Company)

Will Win:

AS: There’s been so much chatter about all of the preparation Natalie Portman put into her role as Nina Sayers, and her performance certainly demonstrated her craft. With all the buzz over her portrayal, The Academy is sure to award her.
AT: Portman will definitely win.
Should Win:
AS: Natalie Portman should win. All of the buzz over “Black Swan” and her role in it (no one can forget Nina pulling a chunk of skin off her finger or black needles from her back) are well deserved.
GM: Disagreed, Nicole Kidman should take this one. “Rabbit Hole” looks like normal Oscar bait on the surface—she’s a grieving mom. But Kidman brings a dark humor and a real humanity to a character played so many times before as just melancholic that is refreshing. She hits every note perfectly.
NL: I agree with everything Georgie said. Natalie Portman’s performance, while deeply disturbing, was as much thanks to special effects as acting.
AT: While the special effects did help, Natalie was chilling as Nina and the movie wouldn’t have been nearly as thrilling without her.