Cadenza predicts… the Academy Awards! part 3

The Academy Awards are only three days away, and so Cadenza’s three-issue Oscar coverage comes to a close. Here are our predictions for the major categories in the race. Will there be surprises? Will Billy Crystal make dated jokes? Are they going to run over their time slot? We suspect a hearty yes to all of these questions. Watch the Oscars on Sunday, Feb. 24, at 6 p.m. CST, coverage on ABC. Plus, Cadenza will be live-blogging the event, so make sure to check in on studlife.com.

Best Animated Feature
“A Cat in Paris”
“Chico & Rita”
“Kung Fu Panda 2”
“Puss in Boots”
“Rango”
The animated category this year has five nominees instead of the usual three, but there were still a few snubs. Steven Spielberg’s motion capture adaptation of the beloved Belgian comic strip “Tintin” was one of them. And surprisingly, Pixar is absent from this year’s animated category. Unsurprisingly, it’s because they submitted the critically ravaged “Cars 2.” Filling out the animation category instead of these two are two little-seen indie projects, “Chico & Rita” and “A Cat in Paris,” which have no chance of winning. “Rango” should easily win this. Perhaps “Kung Fu Panda 2” and its female director, who had the best box office of any female director ever, can upset? She was on the cover of Variety…
Favorite: “Rango”
Spoiler: “Kung Fu Panda 2”
Should have been included:
“The Adventures of Tintin”

Best Actor
Demian Bichir, “A Better Life”
George Clooney, “The Descendants”
Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”
Gary Oldman, “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”
Brad Pitt, “Moneyball”
All I have to say is this: Oscar voters, you have the chance to give an Academy Award to Gary Oldman or Brad Pitt, two underrated and under-awarded treasures of cinema. And instead you’re most likely going to give it to over-nominated George Clooney or Jean Dujardin, who most Americans have never seen before. So, I guess, good job on that. Dujardin should win; he beat Oldman at the BAFTAs and Clooney at the SAGs. I hope that Oldman will pull off the ultimate shocker. Why wouldn’t you want to give him an Oscar? Oh, right, “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” was confusing and cold.
Favorite: Jean Dujardin
Spoiler: George Clooney
Should have been here:
Michael Shannon, “Take
Shelter”

Best Actress
Glenn Close, “Albert Nobbs”
Viola Davis, “The Help”
Rooney Mara, “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”
Michelle Williams, “My Week with Marilyn”
What had once looked to be a three-way race between Davis, Streep and Williams has quickly boiled down to just Davis and Streep. Davis has the SAG; Streep has the BAFTA and the Globe. The difference here is that “The Help” was nominated for Best Picture and “The Iron Lady” only got a Best Makeup nomination. Streep looks to be closing hard (and she has evil genius Harvey Weinstein behind her), but given the opportunity to reward such a gifted actress as Davis, who has been slogging away in thankless roles until her big break (opposite Streep, strangely enough) in “Doubt,” I doubt the Academy will be able to resist. The politics of playing a maid aside, Davis gave a brilliant performance and is completely deserving of the honor; the real injustice here is that she would only be the second black Best Actress winner in history.
Favorite: Viola Davis
Spoiler: Meryl Streep
Should have been included:
Charlize Theron, “Young Adult”

Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, “My Week with Marilyn”
Jonah Hill, “Moneyball”
Nick Nolte, “Warrior”
Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”
Max von Sydow, “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”
The supporting categories are usually the place for shocking wins (Tilda Swinton, anyone? Alan Arkin?). This year, however, they seem all locked up. Christopher Plummer should win for his role in “Beginners.” Also, Jonah Hill is an Oscar nominee now. If anyone made a bet after “Superbad” came out that he would find his way to an Oscar nomination in less than 5 years, congratulations. Some pundits have claimed that the presence of Max von Sydow in this category makes it more interesting, but I doubt anything can stop Plummer. As for who deserves to be here, two words: Albert Brooks.
Favorite: Christopher Plummer
Spoiler: Max von Sydow
Should have been included:
Albert Brooks, “Drive”

Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo, “The Artist”
Jessica Chastain, “The Help”
Melissa McCarthy, “Bridesmaids”
Janet McTeer, “Albert Nobbs”
Octavia Spencer, “The Help”
Octavia Spencer hasn’t lost this award at a major ceremony yet. Maybe Melissa McCarthy can upset (she won the Emmy for a far lesser role), or Jessica Chastain will get a body-of-work award (she was in upwards of six films this year). But I doubt it. This feels like Spencer’s already. But hey, voters, next year, maybe look beyond the precursors for some creative nominees. Elle Fanning was spectacular in “Super 8.” Cicely Tyson brought me to tears in her brief moments onscreen in “The Help.” Most of the women in “Contagion” (Marion Cotillard, Kate Winslet, Jennifer Ehle) blew their roles out of the water.
Favorite: Octavia Spencer
Spoiler: Melissa McCarthy
Should have been included:
Elle Fanning, “Super 8”

Best Directing
Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”
Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”
Terrence Malick, “The Tree of Life”
Alexander Payne, “The Descendants”
Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”
Four past nominees versus one newcomer. And the newcomer is somehow going to triumph over legends like Scorsese, Allen and Malick. There is the possibility of a split between Picture and Director, with Scorsese taking the cake over Hazanavicius. If Scorsese was the only well-respected filmmaker, I would be inclined to take that bet. But add in the fact that Allen made his best film in years, and Malick and “Tree of Life” somehow also showed up in Best Picture. I don’t think there is enough support for a career award for one of them.
Favorite: Michel Hazanavicius
Spoiler: Martin Scorsese
Should have been included:
David Fincher, “The Girl with
the Dragon Tattoo”

Best Picture
“The Artist”
“The Descendants”
“Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”
“The Help”
“Hugo”
“Midnight in Paris”
“Moneyball”
“The Tree of Life”
“War Horse”
Nobody saw nine nominees coming. A few saw some of the disastrous ones coming (“Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close,” really?). It’s hard to make a case for anything but “The Artist” winning at this point. There are too many other options for there to be a clear alternative. This is not “The Hurt Locker” versus “Avatar,” or “The Social Network” versus “The King’s Speech.” Fox Searchlight has positioned “The Descendants” as the underdog, and it’s a dramedy with a beloved lead; “Hugo” has the most nominations; “The Help” is better than “Crash,” and it is favored to win the other categories it is nominated in. Yet, can anything stop “The Artist”? I doubt it. I really do. On to next year.
Favorite: “The Artist”
Spoiler: “The Help”
Should have been included:
“Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy,”
“Bridesmaids”