The Chicago White Sox and the Boston Red Sox have held first place in their divisions during the entire 2005 major league baseball season for a combined 262 days. The White Sox have sat at the top of the American League Central division since opening day, while the Red Sox took over the top spot in the American League East on June 25, passing the Baltimore Orioles.

With these two teams having dominated their divisions for so much of the season, shouldn’t they be considered the favorites to represent the American League in the World Series? Think again. The two most dangerous teams in the American League are the Cleveland Indians and the New York Yankees, who have been battling back and forth for the wild card lead for the past month.

It’s no coincidence that the last three World Series champions (2004 Red Sox, 2003 Marlins and 2002 Angels) have reached the playoffs via the wild card berth. Every year around August, three or four teams with similarly mediocre win-loss records for the first four months of the season battle for the final playoff spot in each league. Therefore, these teams play every game of the last two months of the season as playoff games.

Subsequently, one of these teams (this year, two) steps up and gets hot, reeling off an unseemly winning streak that catapults them ahead of their competitors and into the playoffs. The 2004 Boston Red Sox were far from on their way to a World Series Championship at the end of July when their record stood at 56-46. But they buckled down in the final two months and edged out the Oakland Athletics for the wild card spot, winning 42 of their final 60 games. The Florida Marlins were barely treading above the .500 mark at 69-67 at the end of August in 2003, but an 18-8 September vaulted them into the playoffs and eventually to a World Series championship.

Playing meaningful games during the final months of the season instead of coasting through to the playoffs leads to a successful run in October (watch out, Cardinals). All non-Yankee fans loved the first three months of this season, in which the inconsistent and injury-plagued $200 million busts struggled to a 39-38 record, trailing the first-place Red Sox by six games. But in August and September, the Yankees, in the midst of a heated three-way battle with the Indians and the Athletics for the wild card spot, have gone 31-16, largely due to great performances from unlikely sources.

Yankee rookie Aaron Small (9-0), Colorado refugee Shawn Chacon (3.25 ERA) and a healthy Jaret Wright (3.85 ERA) have led the turnaround. Their play of late has put the team in prime position for their first World Series title in (gasp!) five years.

Why? In recent seasons the Yankees have not had to play a long string of meaningful September games to prepare them for the post-season. They have always maintained a healthy division lead and rested their regulars throughout the final few weeks of the season. Turning the intensity switch back on after the team has been in sleep mode for a couple months is not easy. But this year every game is going to matter for them right down to the final day of the season.

Likewise, the Cleveland Indians at the end of July stood at 55-51. But a team loaded with young talent, but lacking in results in the victory column, suddenly became nearly unbeatable, winning 33 of their last 45 games. They have a dark horse Cy Young candidate in Cliff Lee (17-4 record), the American League ERA leader in Kevin Millwood (2.97) and a starting lineup that includes only three players currently hitting under .280.

Just on Wednesday, the Yankees capitulated their comeback as they overtook the AL East lead from the Red Sox to lead the division by a half game, and the Indians, taking full advantage of the White Sox drastic collapse, trail in the AL Central by only two and a half games.

Though each of these two teams has a realistic shot at winning their division outright, it does not matter if they don’t. History has proven that a division crown or home-field advantage throughout the playoffs does not lead to a World Series Championship. Come October, the hottest team at the time will prevail, giving the wild card contenders in both leagues a huge edge.

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