I’ve been looking forward to writing this week’s column for months now. Perhaps because college basketball is more or less “my thing,” which consequently makes March my favorite month. Or maybe because I just couldn’t wait to tell everyone that this year’s Selection Sunday is also my birthday.

Each year everyone talks about how hard the bracket’s going to be to fill out. It always is, but I usually have a sense of my Final Four and championship-game teams long before March rolls around. This year I just can’t pick a winner. Because for every team with a chance at winning the tournament, there are countless reasons why they could potentially not even come close.

Considering neither Purdue nor Ohio State stands much of a chance against Illinois, they will most likely enter the tournament undefeated. But without even a top-50 conference or nonconference strength of schedule (SoS), the Fighting Illini have yet to prove that they can come out of the tournament the same. And let’s face it-the Big Ten doesn’t exactly make for the toughest basketball competition. But Illinois has a deep, solid squad, including five players who average double-digit points per game. They also beat Wake Forest by 18 points and Michigan State by 13 points, but those were their only top-10 opponents. If the Illini face any top Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), Big East or Big 12 teams this month, they will fall so hard they won’t know what hit them. Though they may be everyone else’s favorites, they are surely not going all the way in my bracket.

Ever since North Carolina recruited their current junior class, they’ve been predicted to see great success. Until this year, these expectations have triggered much disappointment. Fans regained their confidence when UNC defeated Kentucky and Connecticut, followed by a remarkable 22-point victory over Georgia Tech and a 34-point victory over Maryland. Winning margins that huge in the ACC must not go overlooked. Their Sean May has the ninth-best average rebounds per game in the NCAA and is one of their five players who average double digits. As a team, UNC has the best average points per game (89.7) and average winning margin (20.4) in the league. But let’s not overlook their 117th nonconference SoS ranking or their key losses to Wake, Duke and Santa Clara. (Ummm, who??) Their performance in the ACC tournament will determine a lot, but I wouldn’t wholeheartedly count on an end to their disappointing streak.

Wake Forest had some low-margin wins over Arizona, Texas and Duke, as well as a truly tremendous 13-point victory over UNC. Wake’s Justin Gray, Eric Williams and Chris Paul all average 15 or more points per game. This team has the third-highest average points per game (86), but that 18-point loss to Illinois that cost them their number-one ranking still lingers. Wake also lost some almost-forgivable conference games to Florida State, Georgia Tech and Duke. They just aren’t the best bracket bet because they can readily defeat or be defeated by anyone. And if they perform as poorly and sloppily as they did in that Illinois game, we will undoubtedly see the latter.

The Kentucky Wildcats, like all of the other teams competing for one-seeds, are an incredible team. They have three players-Kelenna Azubulke, Chuck Hayes and Patrick Sparks-who average double-digit points per game. Hayes also leads the team in rebounds, averaging 8.3 per game. UK did beat Louisville and Alabama, who were each ranked 14th at the time they played them. But then again, they lost to the only two other ranked teams they played-Kansas by 13 and UNC by 6. I see this as evidence that they can’t beat the best of the best, which becomes a problem come tourney time.

Kansas was ranked number-one preseason for a reason. They currently have the highest general and nonconference SoS and have beaten both Kentucky and Oklahoma State. Three of their players average double-digit points per game, including Wayne Simien, who adds the NCAA’s eighth-highest rebound average of 10.8 per game. I have thought all along that they could win it all, but their shameful losses to Villanova and Iowa State show they can lose to virtually anyone they might face in the tournament.

Not only did Oklahoma State lose to Kansas, but they also lost to Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma and Gonzaga. At the same time, they had two unbelievable victories over Syracuse and Oklahoma. The Cowboys are also ranked second for strongest schedule and fifth in nonconference SoS rankings. Oklahoma State has the fourth-highest average winning margin (15.9 points), the third-highest field goal percentage (50.9 percent) and, most remarkably, the best three-point percentage in the NCAA-they make 43.2 percent from beyond the arc. John Lucas, Joey Graham and Ivan McFarlin all average double-digit points per game.

Boston College was not ranked in the preseason polls. That changed when they became the second-to-last team to be defeated (next to Illinois, which has yet to be). BC has had impressive wins over UConn, Syracuse and West Virginia but lost some big conference games to Notre Dame, Villanova and, most notably, Monday’s whopping 22-point loss to Pitt. Although their leading scorer and rebounder, forward Craig Smith, averages 17.8 points and 8.5 rebounds per game, and three others average double-digit points, BC was not ranked as a team in any significant category. In this case, the conference tournament will do a lot of telling as well.

Duke is more than anything well-coached. This team has far less talent than Coach K is used to, yet they’re competing for a one-seed. Duke has mostly maintained top-ten status, even with the eighth-strongest schedule in the league. Duke also has the NCAA’s eighth-best average points per game (80.6) and seventh-highest average winning margin (14.9 points). Their highest scorers include J.J. Redick, who averages 22.5 points per game (sixth-highest in the NCAA) and Shelden Williams, who also averages 11.4 rebounds per game (also the sixth-best). Duke’s newest hurdle, Sean Dockery’s torn MCL and “indefinite” absence, will cut into the depth they desperately need in order to prevail in both the ACC and NCAA tournaments. And despite two of their best games and most crucial victories over Wake and UNC, Duke did lose to Wake and Virginia Tech-not to mention their pseudo-rival Maryland (twice). But then, they also beat Michigan State once and Georgia Tech twice. So we have yet another team that could just as easily kick ass as get their asses kicked.

My predictions: Illinois gets a one-seed but no championship. BC gets a one-seed if they win the Big East Conference Tournament; otherwise, they compete with the Big 12 champ (namely Kansas or Oklahoma State). The other two one-seeds will go to two of the three top-eight ACC teams and will be determined by the outcomes of the Duke-UNC game at Dean Smith and the ACC Tournament. I’m ruling Kentucky out because I personally don’t think they deserve it, but an SEC championship could prove me wrong.

Though I may be leaving out some other potential competitors, their stories are all the same. It’s going to come down to coaching, depth, who winds up with the easiest path and, more than anything, who’s on and who’s off. I’m sensing a whole lot of upsets this month-upset teams and upset people. As always, it will be Madness. Enjoy your Selection Sunday. I know I will.

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