It’s already February, and in a little more than a month spring training will arrive. A-Rod will be wearing his new Texas uniform, driving to work in his fully-loaded $100,000 luxury vehicle. Manny Ramirez will begin to settle into his $5 million mansion in Boston. And then, there will be you: the proud owner of a fantasy team, who, if you so happen to make the right moves, will walk away with both dignity and the respect of fellow owners. Each fantasy season has its own twists and turns. The ones who can predict them are the winners. Who will be the Darin Erstad of 2001? More importantly, who will bust like Ken Griffey Jr. did a year ago? No, I don’t know if Chipper Jones will hit .320 against left-handing pitching in the eighth inning and beyond at home. But hey, who does?

Needles in a haystack:
Bruce Chen (Phillies): The once high-profile pitcher has been lost in the shuffle after being traded to the Phillies at the end of last year. While coming mostly out of the pen in Atlanta, he was given a chance to start in Philadelphia at the end of last season, and fared well. Fantasy players saw Chen finish the season with a 3.29 ERA and seven wins in only fifteen games started. Look for the former castoff to post similar numbers except for in the win department, where 13-15 is more than within reason.
Fernando Tatis (Expos): Tatis, traded over the off-season by St. Louis to Montreal, is coming off a disappointing year which saw him hit .253 with a mere 18 HR’s and 64 RBI’s. Don’t let this fool you. Tatis suffered a nagging injury which hindered his production throughout last season’s campaign. Before the torn groin dragged him down, he had driven in 50 runs in his first 48 games. This year, however, his numbers could peak at 35 HR’s and 120 RBI’s. In an Expo lineup which needs another power hitter, Tatis will fulfill expectations.
John Smoltz (Braves): After suffering a season-ending injury in spring training last year, Smoltz will rebound nicely in his 2001 campaign. If the elbow holds, he could easily notch 15+ wins with an ERA around 3.50. Smoltz can also be relied on for a high strikeout/per inning ratio. Now, if only his younger counterpart could bounce back?
Ichiro Suzuki (Mariners): The Japanese hitting sensation is coming to Seattle with high expectations. Consider them fulfilled. While Suzuki won’t match the .387 average he compiled in Japan, he will not have a problem climbing over the .300 mark. Facing American League pitching which is watered down at best, Suzuki’s power numbers also could be bolstered. However, he does play at Safeco Field, the AL’s most pitcher-friendly park. One dimension of Suzuki’s game which has gone unnoticed could be his greatest asset to fantasy players: speed. While Suzuki notched 21 stolen bases in 395 at-bats overseas, there’s no reason why he can’t surpass that number when playing for the Mariners.
Need to look elsewhere:
Paul O’Neill (Yankees): Even though O’Neill has had 100 or more RBI’s in each of the past four season, look for his production to slow down in this, his 13th year as a starter in the major leagues. Plagued by hampering injuries last season, O’Neill never hit his stride. However, he will not be the only one on the Yankees having trouble living up to past numbers. David Justice, Tino Martinez and Scott Brosius all will begin to feel their age (if they aren’t already).
David Wells (White Sox): At the All-Star break of last season, Wells was arguably the best starter in the major leagues. But, in the second half, he was one of the worst. Finishing the season with a 4.11 ERA and 20 wins, let other owners draft Wells in earlier rounds. Mike Sirotka, whom Wells was traded for, could turn out to be a better bargain.
Kevin Appier (Mets): Appier, year in and year out, is drafted either too early or for too much in fantasy leagues. Don’t be one of those owners. Although Appier once was one of the elite pitchers in the league with Kansas City in the early 90′s, he hasn’t found his stuff since. He will by no means replace Mike Hampton, whom the Mets will regret not resigning.
Cliff Floyd (Marlins): By no means is he a bust because of his capabilities. The problem is that he has had a history of playing most of one season and then getting injured the next.

Year Team Games Played
1996 Montreal 117
1997 Florida 61
1998 Florida 153
1999 Florida 69
2000 Florida 121

The numbers speak for themselves; and, if Floyd’s pattern of injuries continues, his 2001 tour will be unkind.

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