Student Life Archives (2001-2008)

Young voters weigh heavily in primary season

As Iowa caucus-goers and New Hampshire primary voters cast their ballots in the year’s first presidential contests, first-time and college-age voters came out in force to express a desire for this year’s campaign buzzword: change.

In Iowa, among the Democratic candidates, Illinois Senator Barack Obama stunned the political world with a convincing victory over then-frontrunner and current New York Senator Hillary Clinton.

While he carried nearly every major demographic in the caucus, Obama benefited most from the support of young people. According to CNN entrance polls, voters between the ages of 17 and 29 comprised 22 percent of the Democratic electorate, and 57 percent of this group voted for Obama.

Kevin Wolfe, a sophomore who heads the volunteer effort for Obama at Washington University, attributes Obama’s youth support to his candor and straight talk on the campaign trail.

“A large part [of the support for Obama's message] has to do with the Bush administration, and a large part has to do with the Iraq war,” said Wolfe. “[In addition to the ongoing war] students are thinking about education and health care, and Obama, from the start, addressed those concerns directly.”

Young voters in Iowa appeared to value his call for change over the experience-touting Clinton and the populist candidate, John Edwards, according to CNN entrance polls.

The turnout in the caucus may reflect a more energized group of new voters, but one Iowa contest does not necessarily indicate a wave of national youth activism, said political science professor Steven Smith.

“Caucuses still involve only a small fraction of people and only a small turnout of young people,” said Smith. “Iowa is not a very good measure yet.”

Smith said he believes a better indicator may come on February 5, referred to as Super Tuesday, when 24 states will hold their primary elections.

While youth voter turnout in New Hampshire remained high, the youth demographic did not mobilize as much in New Hampshire as it did in Iowa, making up only 18 percent of the Democrats and 14 percent of the Republicans, according to CNN exit polls from the New Hampshire primary.

After several initial polls gave Obama a double-digit lead over the New York senator, Clinton revived her candidacy with a narrow victory and now heads toward the next batch of primaries and caucuses with new momentum.

The early primary season, while not yet revealing the outcome of the races, has had an impact on public opinion nationwide.

Since the Iowa caucus, the percentage of Democrats who believe Obama would be the strongest candidate against the Republican Party-the much-discussed “electability” category-has spiked from 14 percent in December to 35 percent, according to the most recent New York Times/CBS News Poll.

Clinton maintains a lead among Democratic voters nationwide.

On the Republican side, the youth vote has factored into some campaigns, like that of Ron Paul, a current member of the House of Representatives from Texas’s 14th district, who garnered 10 percent of the vote in the Iowa caucus.

While young Republican voters accounted for 14 percent of voter turnout in New Hampshire, any national increase in young voters will likely lean in favor of the Democrats, said Charis Fischer, president of the College Republicans on campus.

“It will probably be negative for the Republican party,” said Fischer. “It depends on how much you can sway the independent-minded voters.”

As far as which candidate youth voters will align themselves with in the Republican primaries, Arizona Senator John McCain, the victor in New Hampshire, could dominate the demographic.

“He is a candidate who has championed causes that appear to be anti-system,” said Smith.

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