Although there are no official plans for a draft, several indicators suggest otherwise.

First off, let’s read the Selective Service System (SSS) performance plan for FY 2004. Among other things, they are getting ready to “prepare and conduct an Area Office Prototype Exercise which tests the activation process from SSS Lottery input to the issuance of the first Armed Forces Examination Orders.”

Bureacratic language doesn’t hide the truth: they’re making sure that they can efficiently conscript. Why else would Bush authorize a doubling of their budget, to $28 million? Also of interest is that defendamerica.mil had an ad, which only lasted a short while due to media attention, recruiting for people to serve on draft boards. These boards haven’t been used since Vietnam and haven’t done anything since the 1980s.

Military professors have realized the same thing. “What the department of defense is doing is creating the infrastructure to make the draft a viable option should the administration wish to go this route,” said former professor of strategy at the National War College Ned Lebow.

The capacity to draft hasn’t been important for several decades, since Vietnam, so why is it all of a sudden an important priority? The answer is simple: the military needs more people. We are overcommitted; we have troops in three major theaters: Iraq, Afghanistan, and now Haiti. Ironically, Michael O’Hanlon, a scholar at the Brookings Institution, said way back in Sept. 2001 that the only way our nation would resurrect the draft would be “If we had a five-year occupation…and needed to help shepherd in new governments before we could withdraw.” Iraq, anyone?

Already, the Army has authorized 30,000 new positions, for a total of 510,000 soldiers. Although Donald Rumsfeld says the positions are temporary, Army officials have commented that “temporary” in this case could mean “five years.” The extra man-power is necessary to secure Iraq and other occupied lands. The war, though “over,” drags on, with American forces still unable to pacify Iraq.

Slogging it out has hurt American troops’ morale. A survey done by Stars and Stripes, a newspaper written for soldiers, found that about half of enlisted men don’t plan to reenlist. Even a $10,000 reenlistment bonus isn’t enticing enough. To make things worse, our troops’ suicide rate is triple what it was in Vietnam. What the Army needs are fresh troops in Iraq, and that’s the plan, according to Gen. Peter Schoomaker, the chief of staff. He said that he ordered the development of a plan to rotate in a fresh fighting force in 2005 and 2006.

As a result, the Army has had to take drastic steps to maintain operating strength. It has extended soldiers’ tours of duty and denied 40,000 of them transportation home when their enlistment is up. This, in a way, takes the “voluntary” out of our “all-volunteer” Army. I might even say that these soldiers are, in a sense, the first conscripts.

Actually, a limited draft is already in the works. A spokesman for SSS said, “If we have any kind of draft, it will probably be a special skills draft.” The Pentagon confirmed that SSS is developing a special draft of this sort. The skills the military needs most are computer and language skills (particularly Arabic and Afghan dialects).

Vietnam-era deferments will not work due to changes in conscription law. At most, being a college student will get you a deferment to complete the semester. Canada is no longer an option, due to a recent “smart borders” agreement that commits Canada to extradite draft dodgers. Even woman are being considered for conscription, though not for combat roles.

The kicker is that the indicators say that the draft would start in spring 2005-conveniently after presidential elections. This is no coincidence, though. “I don’t think a presidential candidate would seriously propose a draft,” said Charles Pena of the Cato Institute. “But an incumbent, safely in for a second term-that might be a different story.” The SSS report on readiness for activation is due on the President’s desk March 31, 2005.

If a draft does start, those turning 20 in that calendar year will be the first called. Freshmen should be cautious, therefore, in majoring in Arabic or computer science.

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