Cadenza’s Oscar picks 2008
Best Picture
Will Win: “No Country for Old Men”
It’s won every guild award and can only lose if Academy voters have become tired of its dominance. It’s a great movie that, while bleak, is still more upbeat and palatable than “There Will Be Blood.”
Should Win: “There Will Be Blood”
Surely this was the best year for film in recent history. Yes, movies like “No Country for Old Men” and “Atonement” would have had cake-walks to Oscar gold against past competition like “Chicago” or “Crash.” So what makes this dark, greasy, bleak meditation on the evils inherent to humanity the deserved Best Picture? It isn’t just Daniel Day Lewis’ terrifying performance as the oilman who feeds only on the crushed spirits of his competition. It isn’t just the stark landscapes, captured brilliantly with nods towards classic western style by director Paul Thomas Anderson. It’s the movie’s ability to take on the blackest of subjects, to reach into a man’s soul only to find bile and filth, and to make the whole experience watchable, even exuberant. We don’t simply rejoice that we as viewers do not know Daniel Plainview; we recognize that the evils that plague our world, that we throw generic names at like greed and treachery, bubble up out of each of us like oil from a well. It reminds that a little drainage can be a good thing.
Best Actor
Will Win: Daniel Day Lewis, “There Will Be Blood”
He’s won everything and has given moving speeches including his incredibly touching tribute to Heath Ledger at the SAG awards. Cheers, Daniel. Give us another.
Should Win: Daniel Day Lewis, “There Will Be Blood”
After the death of Marlon Brando, the crown for the greatest living actor went back up for grabs. Daniel Day Lewis now sits on that throne with the rest of the acting community kissing his regal feet. He does not churn out biannual performances. He never degrades himself in pay-check cashing romantic comedies. He chooses to act in a film every couple of years because he respects the acting trade so much that he doesn’t want the overexposure. Every single performance of his career is memorable because he plays a completely novel character every time. He will never be typecast, he will rightfully win the Oscar, and he will win a couple more before he meets his demise.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: “Juno”
“Juno” is the kind of fresh, hip stuff the Academy eats up. Combine that with the facts that it has affecting emotional value, and makes logical sense (unlike many of the stridently quirky films of the past few years), and it’s a shoo-in.
Should Win:
Matt Karlan: “Lars and the Real Girl”
How Nancy Oliver made this premise into a viable feature film is beyond me. It seems the story of a man and his blowup doll should last five minutes, and any time after that would be devoted to as many “Weekend at Bernie’s” references as one could tolerate. But the film had a ton of heart, even if the female lead did not.
Cecilia Razak: “Juno”
With its incisive, cerebral, indie, insider dialogue, “Juno” captured, if not our hearts, then definitely the snarky, sardonic child inside all of us. Not that we’re pregnant. Juno, however, is. Conception occurs upon her first embarkment into the world of adult relations, and, being the whip-smart sixteen-year-old that she is, Juno decides to give the baby up to a family that truly needs it. Things obviously don’t go exactly as planned, but throughout the narrative of this cutting yet heartfelt film, we find ourselves drawn along with the young girl who seems to be doing no more than finding her fit, even if it does have to be big enough for two.
Brian Stitt: “Ratatouille”
I’m not going to say that “Ratatouille” is definitely the best movie the folks at Pixar have ever made. But the subtle and achingly genuine screenplay is better than “Toy Story” and “The Incredibles” put together. Like a meal made at a Michelin three-star restaurant, the balance of story, character, and social commentary is handled with expert grace but with an even more impressive understanding of the public palate sends this screenplay over the top. Brad Bird and crew are able to say mouthfuls about class warfare, the guilt of abandoning your family’s values, and the connection between food and true happiness in what is essentially a crowd-pleasing family comedy.
Best Director
Will Win: The Coen Brothers, “No Country for Old Men”
The Academy doesn’t really like duo directing, but the film has too much support. The Coen brothers have been making well-respected and popular movies for over 20 years, and the Oscars have developed a taste for their quirkiness over that time.
Should Win:
Matt Karlan: Julian Schnabel, “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”
To portray the perspective of a mute, paralyzed man with such vibrancy required exceptional directing. “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” could have been horribly depressing, but the directing made it uplifting without being drippy. I never blinked once.
Cecilia Razak: Paul Thomas Anderson, “There Will Be Blood”
The opening frame of “There Will Be Blood” is a stark, sun-scorched landscape, and things don’t get much better from there. Shot throughout with an empty, uncanny feeling of loss and barrenness, every frame of “Blood” counteracts the wealth that oil man Daniel Plainview steadily accrues. Even though we see Plainview strike it rich, we are left with a feeling of desperation and poverty, the human in him dwindling amidst the vastness of his surroundings. Anderson shows us Plainview’s soul with his camera work, a soul capable of love, yet dark as oil.
Brian Stitt: The Coen Brothers, “No Country for Old Men”
We can all pretend that the Best Director Oscar is actually given for individual achievement and isn’t just a disguised Lifetime Achievment/Best Newcomer award, but why? Anderson has just fully harnessed his prodigious talent and none of the newcomers this year distinguished themselves enough in my eyes to outweigh the Coen’s supremely varied body of work. The same two guys made “Barton Fink,” “The Big Lebowski,” “O Brother Where art Thou?” and “No Country for Old Men.” Few other directors in history can boast of such a pedigree, much less those nominated this year.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Javier Bardem, “No Country for Old Men”
Most of the Academy is too freaked out not to vote for him.
Should Win: Javier Bardem, “No Country for Old Men”
Javier Bardem is affecting as a quadriplegic in “The Sea Inside,” mesmerizing as a wistful poet in “Before Night Falls,” and downright terrifying with his hair cut the way it is in “No Country For Old Men.” All right, it’s not just the hairstyle that makes him terrify movie-goers and Coen characters alike. His raspy, unplaceable accent, flat of affect or any hint of remorse, is sneakily unsettling, and it’s not hard to understand why every person he leaves unharmed (the number is not high) emerges looking pale and distinctly disquieted.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: “No Country for Old Men”
With unanimous accolades, “No Country for Old Men” is a masterfully cinematic adaptation of an already cinematic novel. It won before it was bound.
Should Win: “There Will Be Blood”
The key word here is adapted. Paul Thomas Anderson took an Upton Sinclair novel, “Oil!” and changed most of the specifics without touching the spirit. The muckraker’s angle on greed and capitalism in the California oil industry plays just as well in our day as it did in his. Not any novel can become a great film, and some of the best novels are almost completely inadaptable. By giving himself a skeleton to build on, no matter how clean he picked it beforehand, Anderson limited himself and thus focused his talents and ideas, doing favors for Sinclair and himself.
Best Cinematography
Will Win: “There Will Be Blood”
“There Will Be Blood” is such a holistically well-made film that it has to earn more than just a best actor statue, and the Academy can surely hear the sweeping landscapes calling.
Best Actress
Will Win: Marion Cotillard, “La Vie en Rose”
In the past 10 years all but one of the Best Actress winners have been under 35 and all but three have been for roles as real people. Only Marion Cotillard meets both requirements. Christie’s won before and Oscar may want to jump on this youthful starlet now so they can say they liked her before she was big.
Should Win:
Matt Karlan: Laura Linney,
“The Savages”
In “The Savages” Laura Linney portrays a real woman. No brain affliction, no singing prowess, no overwhelming snarkiness, no power over England, just a lady with problems. And she deserves recognition for making it so much more than that.
Brian Stitt: Ellen Page, “Juno”
A lot of people say that Ellen Page shouldn’t win this award because she basically is playing herself. Well, shouldn’t she win it for simply convincing everyone that she’s playing herself in “Juno”? ‘Cause she’s not. She certainly puts a lot of veracity and ferocity into the role, but to make a character that speaks in such affected quirks in any way believable is a monumental achievement.
Cecilia Razak: Julie Christie,
“Away From Her”
In “Away From Her,” Julie Christie plays Fiona, a woman slowly succumbing to Alzheimer’s. There is a look of securely contained terror in her eyes as she faces the realities of the disease, or the loss of the realities, as the case may be. Christie plays Fiona with a muted, elegiac quality so assured that one is liable to forget that there is a healthy, sound-of-mind actress behind those eyes at all.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Amy Ryan, “Gone Baby Gone”
The night’s toughest category to call, but Ryan’s the winner by elimination. Cate Blanchett won too recently, Saorise Ronan’s too young, Ruby Dee had too small of a role in “American Gangster,” and Tilda Swinton, is, uh, too tall?
Should Win:
Cecilia Razak: Cate Blanchett, “I’m Not There”
Yes, I know, Cate Blanchett already has an Oscar for best supporting actress (as Katherine Hepburn in “The Aviator”). She has also been nominated for the honor a slew of other times, each for roles diverse and captivatingly played. This year she’s nominated in both leading and supporting roles. And even though she’s a perennial (and therefore slightly tired) Academy favorite, it’s my humble opinion that anyone who can so convincingly play both Queen Elizabeth and Bob Dylan in the same year deserves some recognition.
Brian Stitt: Amy Ryan, “Gone Baby Gone”
I really liked “Gone Baby Gone.” I was happy to see Ben Affleck redeem himself in at least some small way. But I was truly stunned by his ability to capture the look and feel of a lower class neighborhood by using snapshots of real residents from Southie. The fact that native New Yorker Amy Ryan blended so perfectly with the setting Affleck created, and that, unbeknownst to me (I learned while researching this article), she featured prominently in the second season of “The Wire” which I am currently watching, proves that Ryan is a chameleon of the first order.
Matt Karlan: Sigourney Weaver, “The TV Set”
As part of my quest to force everyone with a Netflix account or Blockbuster card to rent this picture, I must pick Weaver to win this statue, even though she’s not nominated. She stole every scene in which she appeared; it was like the rest of the cast was receiving on-the-job acting lessons.
Best Editing
Will Win: “The Bourne Ultimatum”
“The Bourne Ultimatum,” which could have easily been unsettling-it has so much handheld camera work it leaves one wondering whether Paul Greengrass forgot steadicam harnesses existed-deserves this honor. Its editing is unbalancing while still maintaining a sense of security and order. The quick pace and seamless cuts are liable to knock the wind from any viewer.
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