Best Picture

Nominees:
“Babel”
“The Departed”
“Letters From Iwo Jima”
“Little Miss Sunshine”
“The Queen”

This is the hardest of any race to call and unfortunately not because all of the movies are so undeniably deserving. Each of these films was good, sometimes even great but none inspired that stick-with-you or “wow” that often wins Oscar races. The emotions portrayed in “Letters From Iwo Jima” juxtaposed well with the pride and shame displayed by American soldiers in “Flags of our Fathers,” but the film was too ploddingly sad to stand alone as a triumph. “Little Miss Sunshine” was wonderfully acted but is too quirky to win and not quirky enough to deserve it. So this leaves us with three possible winners. “Babel” had a great message, but it wobbled and is too similar to last year’s winner “Crash,” so I’m going with “The Departed” to win. I felt it was a great crime picture but not the kind that elevates the genre like, I dunno, “Goodfellas.” However, it had enough pop to please everybody and will therefore take home the award.

“The Queen” gets my vote for what should win by default. I really liked what Stephen Frears did with the comparison of the royal family with Tony Blair’s shockingly normal home life and believe that this film deserves some attention. However, I can think of several pictures this year I thought were better, but they weren’t nominated and that’s not how the game is played.

Best Actress

Nominees:
Penelope Cruz (“Volver”)
Judi Dench (“Notes on a Scandal”)
Helen Mirren (“The Queen”)
Meryl Streep (“The Devil Wears Prada”)
Kate Winslet (“Little Children”)

This is a one-woman race and everybody knows it. The Academy should just toss the statuette to Helen Mirren at the beginning of the show and get it over with. She was graceful, stern and completely human as the robotically self-controlled Queen Elizabeth and raised “The Queen” from a standard biopic to a remorseful masterpiece. Oscar traditionally loves actors who play real people, and they will not give up the chance to award someone who played living royalty.

But I’m still rooting for Kate Winslet. She doesn’t have a chance: Mirren has a long, distinguished and completely Oscar-less career, which needs to be recognized, but I still want Winslet to win, and badly. She has distinguished herself has an actress capable of creating complex characters in a variety of different roles, showcased wonderfully in “Little Children,” in which she imports Madame Bovary to the suburbs. The other three performances were defiantly nomination-worthy, but two are former winners (Dench and Streep), and Penelope Cruz is still hard to swallow for everyone who has seen her try to act in English.

Best Actor

Nominees:
Leonardo DiCaprio (“Blood Diamond”)
Ryan Gosling (“Half Nelson”)
Peter O’Toole (“Venus”)
Will Smith (“The Pursuit of Happyness”)
Forest Whitaker (“Last King of Scotland”)

Forest Whitaker will take home the award for his role as a political figure in “The Last King of Scotland.” His Idi Amin and history’s version are virtually indistinguishable. He prowls the screen with lion-like grace but never chews scenery and holds on to the gentle side he’s shown us so many times before. Peter O’Toole is the other major contender, and his performance in “Venus” is certainly more than a career-capping victory lap, but Whitaker has more momentum going into Sunday night.

I’d like to say that I want O’Toole to win as payback for the Honorary Award he received that he took as an insult suggesting he didn’t have a shot at a real one. But I am an unabashed Forest Whitaker fan and can’t wait for him to shuffle on stage and deliver a shy, mumbly speech. Peter O’Toole is one of the great actors and will be remembered always for his classic roles, but Forest Whitaker has been giving classic performances that few remember, in movies like “Ghost Dog” and “The Crying Game.”

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees:
Adriana Barraza (“Babel”)
Cate Blanchett (“Notes on a Scandal”)
Abigail Breslin (“Little Miss Sunshine”)
Jennifer Hudson (“Dreamgirls”)
Rinko Kikuchi (“Babel”)

Everything’s coming up Jennifer Hudson. The only other person in this category anybody’s ever heard of is Cate Blanchett and she just won this award two years ago. Breslin was very strong in a tough role for a child, but she is very young and this nomination is just an excuse to invite a little girl to an awards show. After everyone gets their collective “Awww, isn’t that cute” out of the way, the award will go to Hudson, whose performance was physically arresting and vocally mind-melting. After getting snubbed by American Idol, she deserves this.

But not as much as Rinko Kikuchi. I know I’ve said it before, but she dominated the ensemble cast of “Babel” and never said a word. Oscar gave Jamie Foxx a lot of credit for acting without his eyes in “Ray,” and Kikuchi should get the same kudos for acting without her voice. She and Adriana Barraza, who was also fantastic, will split the “Babel”-vote, pushing Hudson to victory.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees:
Alan Arkin (“Little Miss Sunshine”)
Jackie Earle Haley (“Little Children”)
Djimon Hounsou (“Blood Diamond”)
Eddie Murphy (“Dreamgirls”)
Mark Wahlberg (“The Departed”)

Nobody would have bet on Eddie Murphy taking home an Oscar even one year ago, but he will probably do just that for his role in “Dreamgirls.” He puts so much life and verve into James “Thunder” Early that it is hard to imagine any other actor playing the part. But this race is the closest of the majors and features some of the strongest contenders out of any category. Djimon Hounsou was more important than Leo DiCaprio in “The Blood Diamond,” and Alan Arkin stole scenes and hearts as a heroin-snorting grampa.

However, it is Mark Wahlberg who deserves to take home the naked man this year. Another performer whose presence in an Oscar race would have been inconceivable when he hit the scene, Marky Mark has graduated from glorified underwear model to go-to leading man/character actor. His Detective Dignam is funny, jaw-droppingly crude and somewhat underwritten. Wahlberg takes what he’s given and works wonders creating a round character out of a cutout. I also like former child star Jackie Earle Haley as the conflicted sex offender in “Little Children” and hope to see his career take off once again.

Best Director

Nominees:
Clint Eastwood (“Letters from Iwo Jima”)
Stephen Frears (“The Queen”)
Paul Greengrass (“United 93″)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (“Babel”)
Martin Scorcese (“The Departed”)

This will finally be the year for Martin Scorcese, or so all the buzz is telling us. He who has been snubbed so many times before (most notably for the 1980 “Ordinary People” over “Raging Bull” debacle) will finally get the chance to tell all of the Academy voters how he really feels. Hopefully this win will get him past his Oscar-begging phase, and he will start making those small movies he has been promising us. The possible spoilers are Eastwood (whose recent stuff I feel is more straight depressing than emotionally affecting) and Inarritu, but their films will probably be honored in other categories.

But I’m throwing my completely inconsequential vote towards Paul Greengrass. Not because he really deserves it, although he did an amazing job with “United 93″ that should be recognized, but because Martin Scorcese shouldn’t have to beg for an Oscar. Screw ‘em, Marty! Flip up your middle finger and roar at those political Academy self-important gasbags. Join the ranks of Hitchcock and Kubrick as those that were too good for Oscar. Also, I want to see the shade of purple Scorcese would turn if he got passed up again.

Original Screenplay
“Babel” will get recognized here, but don’t count out “Pan’s Labyrinth” or “Little Miss Sunshine,” which could both surprise.

Adapted Screenplay
“Little Children” will probably see this Oscar, but “Borat” could upset by picking up the swing votes.

Best Documentary
Al Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth” will be tough to beat, but don’t be too surprised if “Deliver Us from Evil” wins in a recount.

Best Editing
“Babel” will most assuredly win this, although editing was its biggest flaw. “Children of Men” is the no-brainer choice with some astonishing work.

Best Cinematography
This is where my baby “The Prestige” has a chance at an award, but “Children of Men” and “Pan’s Labyrinth” should fight for this one.

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